NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	107		Excitement	7.2 [407]		MVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): +28.2%
Minnesota Timberwolves	100		Comeback	2.6 [305]		LVP	Jarrett Culver (MIN): -14.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.14	0.14	-0.00	12	77%	0.31	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jerami Grant	0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.03	0.02	13	73%	0.15	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	4	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08	0.10	0.01	0.04	11	69%	0.12	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Monte Morris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	12	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	15	50%	0.08	5	-0.12	4	75%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
PJ Dozier	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.2,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.04	0.02	19	60%	0.15	0	0.00	9	89%	0.04
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.07	-0.01	11	70%	0.17	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Keita Bates-Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.00	6	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Covington	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.02	-0.03	10	45%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	5	80%	0.10	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Allen Crabbe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.02	0.00	17	42%	0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Shabazz Napier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McLaughlin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jarrett Culver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	8	37%	-0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.0	27.1	14.8	22.8	1.8	28.5	123.1
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +40.6%

MIN -6.7%

DEN +28.8%

MIN -12.6%

MIN -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	14.7	15.3	14.2	110.3	105.3	109.6
season	15.0	13.8		112.0	107.1
opponent	13.8	14.5		110.9	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.2	13.6	15.0	16.3	14.7
MIN	14.6	15.8	15.0	15.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Porter Jr.	62	60	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.17	17	-10	27	13.4	17.0	-3.54	15.5	14.9	0.56
Malik Beasley	50	49	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.28	9	-2	11	13.4	16.1	-2.75	15.9	14.7	1.25
Monte Morris	70	70	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.22	9	-2	11	15.9	11.7	4.22	14.8	16.7	-1.93
PJ Dozier	40	38	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.20	6	1	5	12.6	16.2	-3.55	16.2	14.7	1.44
Mason Plumlee	24	22	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.13	6	1	5	11.5	15.8	-4.32	16.2	15.0	1.15
Will Barton	65	64	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.08	7	0	7	14.9	14.3	0.64	15.3	15.4	-0.09
Jerami Grant	61	60	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.08	1	6	-5	16.0	12.5	3.47	15.1	15.7	-0.57
Nikola Jokic	66	66	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.23	-6	13	-19	16.0	12.0	4.03	15.0	16.0	-0.97
Torrey Craig	32	32	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.05	-7	14	-21	17.1	13.5	3.60	14.5	15.7	-1.25
Juancho Hernangomez	15	14	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.04	-7	14	-21	12.7	15.1	-2.34	15.4	15.3	0.16

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Okogie	53	54	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-10	13	15.3	15.3	0.02	14.1	15.5	-1.48
Shabazz Napier	54	56	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.21	4	-11	15	14.6	16.1	-1.50	16.2	12.7	3.56
Jordan McLaughlin	24	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-4	1	16.5	14.9	1.67	12.7	15.4	-2.61
Karl-Anthony Towns	68	70	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.23	2	-9	11	14.8	16.6	-1.86	16.2	10.9	5.30
Keita Bates-Diop	30	33	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.21	-1	-6	5	16.1	14.9	1.13	12.7	15.7	-3.05
Robert Covington	65	64	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-1	-5	14.9	16.1	-1.13	15.7	12.7	3.05
Gorgui Dieng	27	27	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.06	-9	2	-11	16.6	14.8	1.86	10.9	16.2	-5.30
Andrew Wiggins	65	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.12	-8	1	-9	14.9	16.1	-1.13	15.7	12.7	3.07
Allen Crabbe	35	37	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	4	-15	16.1	14.8	1.34	12.4	16.1	-3.68
Jarrett Culver	54	55	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-1	-5	15.3	15.3	-0.08	15.0	14.3	0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.7,0.66,0.59,0.58,0.52,0.39,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.25,0.32,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 108, DAL 106	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.5,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.5,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.1,0.09,0.03,0.15,0.07,0.1,0.02,0	93.9%
GSW 95, HOU 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.3,0.35,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.27,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.02,0	93.8%
ATL 85, DET 72	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.3,0.19,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0	93.5%