NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	7.3 [427]		MVP	Torrey Craig (DEN): +22.2%
Boston Celtics	105		Comeback	2.6 [328]		LVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): -12.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Torrey Craig	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.09	0.13	0.00	7	76%	0.25	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.15	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.04	-0.01	14	75%	0.18	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	9	61%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.01	13	57%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Will Barton	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	17	59%	0.16	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.05	-0.00	11	32%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.07	-0.01	0.06	7	71%	0.05	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	11	50%	0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	3	37%	0.03	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Isaiah Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.06	0.02	23	56%	0.17	1	-0.04	8	100%	0.04
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.02	-0.00	15	67%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.03	-0.02	7	76%	0.20	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	42%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Daniel Theis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	9	39%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	43%	-0.04	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	11	45%	-0.07	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	12	31%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.4	24.8	14.7	27.6	2.5	29.2	125.6
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +65.7%

BOS -15.1%

DEN +19.1%

BOS -19.6%

BOS -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	BOS	NBA	DEN	BOS	NBA
this game	15.5	13.3	14.3	114.0	105.0	109.3
season	14.8	13.9		112.0	109.9
opponent	14.7	14.6		106.3	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.5	14.1	14.7	15.8	15.5
BOS	13.8	14.7	12.5	12.3	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Torrey Craig	45	45	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.33	12	-3	15	14.4	16.4	-1.98	13.7	13.0	0.77
Nikola Jokic	76	75	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.03	15	-6	21	15.1	16.6	-1.44	13.1	14.0	-0.87
Malik Beasley	36	37	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.27	4	5	-1	16.7	14.8	1.84	14.8	12.4	2.34
Paul Millsap	57	59	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	4	1	15.9	15.0	0.94	12.2	14.9	-2.74
Monte Morris	37	38	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	8	-7	16.9	14.7	2.18	15.1	12.2	2.94
Mason Plumlee	40	40	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.25	0	9	-9	17.0	14.5	2.56	15.0	12.2	2.86
Jamal Murray	64	62	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.04	8	1	7	14.6	17.1	-2.58	12.2	15.1	-2.94
Gary Harris	64	63	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	4	1	14.8	16.7	-1.84	12.4	14.8	-2.34
Will Barton	69	68	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	6	-3	14.9	16.8	-1.95	12.8	14.3	-1.47
Isaiah Thomas	12	13	-0.17	0.68	-0.85	0.06	-8	17	-25	18.9	15.0	3.89	15.4	13.0	2.38

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Theis	15	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-9	9	13.5	13.3	0.18	15.3	15.5	-0.24
Kyrie Irving	76	77	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-7	5	12.7	15.3	-2.66	15.2	16.5	-1.34
Marcus Morris	75	74	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.05	-7	-2	-5	13.3	13.4	-0.17	15.3	16.1	-0.85
Aron Baynes	36	35	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	-5	1	14.5	12.6	1.90	15.0	15.8	-0.80
Jaylen Brown	42	40	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.19	-4	-5	1	12.9	13.6	-0.78	17.0	14.5	2.56
Al Horford	68	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.26	-2	-7	5	12.9	14.2	-1.29	16.1	13.9	2.24
Terry Rozier	41	40	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.20	-9	0	-9	14.9	12.2	2.62	16.6	14.7	1.93
Jayson Tatum	77	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.20	-9	0	-9	13.6	12.3	1.36	14.9	17.5	-2.58
Marcus Smart	71	73	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.21	-10	1	-11	12.6	15.0	-2.33	14.6	17.8	-3.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.5,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.09,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 85, WAS 77	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.43,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.09,0,0	93.5%
CHI 98, DET 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.03,0,0	93.0%
PHI 104, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.23,0.17,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0	92.7%