NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	100		Excitement	7.6 [378]		MVP	Paul Millsap (DEN): +25.8%
Denver Nuggets	102		Comeback	7.5 [463]		LVP	Bojan Bogdanovic (IND): -14.8%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Myles Turner	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.16	0.01	0.14	-0.01	9	52%	0.20	1	-0.03	11	82%	-0.04
Domantas Sabonis	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.07	0.03	10	57%	0.11	1	-0.03	8	50%	-0.06
Thaddeus Young	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	15	60%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	5	33%	0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.06	-0.06	0.02	12	63%	0.03	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Wesley Matthews	-0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	58%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Cory Joseph	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	12%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Bojan Bogdanovic	-0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.15	-0.00	-0.12	0.02	12	53%	-0.11	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.04

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.26	0.26	0.03	0.24	0.01	11	52%	0.28	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.05	0.01	10	71%	0.17	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	6	92%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.02	0.03	21	59%	0.13	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	15	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	36%	0.02	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.05
Torrey Craig	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	10	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	1.8	29.0	14.8	24.8	2.0	41.8	136.5
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +67.4%

IND -22.8%

DEN +10.0%

DEN +1.6%

IND -6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DEN	NBA	IND	DEN	NBA
this game	14.9	16.1	14.3	107.5	109.7	109.3
season	14.5	14.8		108.4	112.0
opponent	14.6	14.6		108.1	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.5	15.2	15.5	14.2	14.9
DEN	15.5	16.1	14.5	18.5	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug McDermott	25	26	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.15	8	-10	18	13.7	15.3	-1.63	17.1	15.7	1.41
Cory Joseph	39	37	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-2	2	16.2	13.9	2.25	17.2	15.4	1.81
Domantas Sabonis	48	46	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.20	1	-3	4	15.2	14.5	0.74	16.8	15.4	1.31
Tyreke Evans	29	29	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-1	0	15.6	14.5	1.04	17.1	15.7	1.41
Darren Collison	60	60	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-1	0	14.4	15.8	-1.42	15.4	17.3	-1.92
Wesley Matthews	64	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-1	0	14.5	15.6	-1.04	15.7	17.1	-1.41
Myles Turner	71	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.30	-3	1	-4	15.0	14.6	0.37	15.8	16.9	-1.06
Thaddeus Young	67	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.39	-2	0	-2	14.5	15.8	-1.25	15.9	16.6	-0.71
Bojan Bogdanovic	62	63	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.30	-11	9	-20	15.0	14.6	0.44	15.7	17.0	-1.28

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	72	73	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.33	12	-10	22	15.8	17.2	-1.47	14.3	17.0	-2.78
Mason Plumlee	42	43	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.37	3	-1	4	17.2	15.2	2.04	15.8	14.0	1.80
Gary Harris	58	58	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	-7	16	15.3	17.4	-2.04	14.4	15.6	-1.21
Nikola Jokic	64	65	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.11	7	-5	12	15.9	16.4	-0.51	15.6	13.1	2.47
Will Barton	68	67	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.29	0	2	-2	15.8	17.0	-1.24	15.1	14.2	0.89
Paul Millsap	68	68	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.26	1	1	0	15.6	17.4	-1.73	14.2	16.8	-2.64
Monte Morris	47	47	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.45	-6	8	-14	17.2	15.0	2.17	15.3	14.5	0.82
Torrey Craig	1	0	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	2	-2	0.0	16.3	-16.27	0.0	14.9	-14.87
Malik Beasley	35	35	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.26	-7	9	-16	17.4	15.3	2.04	15.6	14.4	1.21
Juancho Hernangomez	10	9	-0.45	0.95	-1.40	-0.19	-9	11	-20	16.8	16.0	0.79	11.1	15.3	-4.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.16,0.23,0.2,0.14,0.21,0.3,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 100, MIL 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.23,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.23,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.99,1	93.8%
DEN 91, UTA 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.22,0.26,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1	92.7%
MIN 97, POR 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.82,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	92.4%