NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	103		Excitement	7.5 [391]		MVP	Bryn Forbes (SAS): +26.9%
San Antonio Spurs	108		Comeback	2.4 [546]		LVP	Jusuf Nurkic (POR): -13.0%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.04,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.07	0.06	29	54%	0.15	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.04
Rodney Hood	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.04	-0.03	12	46%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.07
Maurice Harkless	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	58%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jake Layman	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Enes Kanter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	13	38%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Seth Curry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.03	0.04	5	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.13	0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	21	52%	0.07	5	-0.20	4	100%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryn Forbes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.15,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.06	0.20	-0.01	9	58%	0.27	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.05,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.13	0.02	3	70%	0.18	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	14	55%	0.10	1	-0.01	10	90%	0.04
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	7	69%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.02	10	59%	0.08	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.01	0.06	7	72%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.02	0.04	9	55%	0.06	1	-0.06	4	100%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	13	41%	-0.00	4	-0.12	3	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.4	29.6	15.4	24.8	1.0	35.3	131.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +54.4%

SAS +20.8%

POR -32.1%

SAS +6.8%

SAS +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	SAS	NBA	POR	SAS	NBA
this game	14.7	14.1	14.3	102.0	109.1	109.3
season	14.9	14.8		112.6	111.7
opponent	14.4	13.9		110.4	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	13.7	14.7	14.3	15.8	14.7
SAS	17.0	13.0	15.7	11.3	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ McCollum	46	45	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-5	5	14.2	15.1	-0.88	15.5	13.0	2.55
Evan Turner	35	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	0	-5	13.9	15.0	-1.09	14.2	14.1	0.05
Al-Farouq Aminu	49	46	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-3	1	14.8	14.5	0.32	15.2	13.2	1.97
Jusuf Nurkic	69	67	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.28	3	-8	11	14.7	14.6	0.04	14.6	13.1	1.55
Jake Layman	41	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-4	3	15.8	13.8	1.98	12.5	15.3	-2.86
Damian Lillard	77	77	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.39	3	-8	11	14.7	14.4	0.31	14.5	12.9	1.64
Enes Kanter	31	30	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.01	-10	5	-15	14.8	14.6	0.22	13.8	14.3	-0.44
Seth Curry	41	41	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.25	-3	-2	-1	14.8	14.5	0.25	12.4	15.3	-2.91
Maurice Harkless	61	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-2	-1	14.8	14.4	0.34	14.1	14.2	-0.11
Rodney Hood	55	53	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.30	-7	2	-9	14.0	15.4	-1.39	13.7	14.7	-0.95

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Davis Bertans	40	40	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.22	17	-12	29	13.3	14.7	-1.33	16.2	13.6	2.60
Bryn Forbes	49	49	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.27	10	-5	15	15.5	12.8	2.75	15.0	14.3	0.71
Patty Mills	56	55	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.26	7	-2	9	12.7	16.0	-3.37	14.3	15.1	-0.84
LaMarcus Aldridge	74	75	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	4	-3	14.4	13.3	1.10	14.5	15.0	-0.52
DeMar DeRozan	69	71	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.27	-5	10	-15	14.6	13.1	1.45	14.0	16.3	-2.34
Marco Belinelli	56	59	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	4	-3	13.6	14.8	-1.23	14.6	14.8	-0.23
Jakob Poeltl	49	50	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.13	8	-3	11	14.7	13.6	1.17	15.2	14.1	1.08
Derrick White	50	52	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.23	-7	12	-19	15.0	13.3	1.73	15.1	14.2	0.95
Rudy Gay	52	54	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.16	-7	12	-19	13.2	15.1	-1.92	13.8	15.6	-1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.39,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.89,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 60, NJN 64	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.54,0.33,0.53,0.89,0.91,0.98,1	92.5%
PHX 92, POR 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.65,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.26,0.34,0.48,0.38,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.53,0.81,0.89,0.99,1,1	92.0%
GSW 95, SAS 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.68,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.45,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.31,0.47,0.53,0.81,0.95,0.93,0.99,1	91.3%