NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	118		Excitement	7.6 [375]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +32.9%
Houston Rockets	121		Comeback	24.8 [197]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -15.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.09	0.03	12	66%	0.17	0	0.00	8	100%	0.07
Bam Adebayo	0.16	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.05	0.11	-0.01	6	62%	0.18	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Rodney McGruder	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.08	-0.07	-0.01	14	75%	0.16	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dion Waiters	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	7	69%	0.06	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Richardson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.07	0.10	-0.13	0.03	11	69%	-0.06	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Justise Winslow	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08	0.04	-0.10	0.02	13	63%	0.01	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.11
Dwyane Wade	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16,-0.16	-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	15	40%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.27,0.23,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.43,0.43,0.33	0.33	0.35	0.04	0.06	32	71%	0.42	4	-0.10	18	100%	0.11
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.18	0.07	0.01	8	106%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,0.06,-0.02,0.11	0.11	-0.04	0.15	-0.00	12	48%	0.18	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.09
Gary Clark	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.02	0.03	9	74%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	2	75%	0.07	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.02	2	150%	0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	9	33%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	0.3	31.7	11.0	29.1	0.1	34.6	131.9
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +26.8%

HOU +25.0%

HOU +0.1%

HOU +2.5%

MIA -4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	15.7	14.3	14.3	122.9	126.0	109.3
season	14.8	14.8		106.3	114.0
opponent	14.4	14.3		109.3	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	13.7	17.3	16.5	15.7
HOU	15.6	13.5	14.0	14.2	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	51	52	0.20	-0.70	0.91	-0.24	15	-18	33	15.1	16.4	-1.26	14.0	14.6	-0.63
Rodney McGruder	14	14	0.18	-0.68	0.87	-0.02	7	-10	17	12.4	16.3	-3.86	12.0	14.7	-2.66
Derrick Jones Jr.	40	39	0.12	-0.62	0.73	0.06	2	-5	7	16.8	14.9	1.88	14.3	14.3	-0.02
Kelly Olynyk	66	68	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.26	5	-8	13	15.0	17.3	-2.24	14.7	13.2	1.54
Dwyane Wade	49	49	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.33	-1	-2	1	16.3	15.1	1.14	14.9	13.7	1.20
Bam Adebayo	58	56	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	10	-23	16.6	14.4	2.12	14.2	14.3	-0.05
Josh Richardson	75	74	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.45	-3	0	-3	15.6	16.1	-0.53	14.7	12.8	1.94
Justise Winslow	75	75	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.41	-5	2	-7	15.6	16.0	-0.41	14.1	15.0	-0.87
Dion Waiters	65	65	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.37	-14	11	-25	15.9	15.4	0.46	14.0	14.9	-0.89

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Austin Rivers	58	57	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.44	8	-5	13	14.7	13.6	1.06	16.9	14.0	2.87
James Harden	87	87	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.35	10	-7	17	14.1	15.4	-1.30	16.0	13.2	2.77
Clint Capela	76	76	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	-2	7	14.0	15.1	-1.11	15.8	15.5	0.23
Gerald Green	67	67	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.51	0	3	-3	14.1	14.6	-0.45	15.8	15.5	0.30
Gary Clark	69	67	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.06	5	-2	7	13.7	15.7	-1.99	15.0	17.3	-2.31
Chris Paul	70	72	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.34	-6	9	-15	14.7	13.2	1.53	14.7	18.7	-4.03
PJ Tucker	43	43	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.07	1	2	-1	14.4	14.2	0.18	16.7	14.9	1.80
Nene	14	15	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.10	-11	14	-25	15.4	14.1	1.36	14.0	16.0	-2.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.21,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.24,0.15,0.17,0.09,0.08,0.19,0.15,0.2,0.28,0.13,0.15,0.33,0.55,0.63,0.69,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 101, GSW 108	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.2,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.46,0.69,0.73,1	90.1%
OKC 112, POR 115	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.18,0.26,0.29,0.2,0.13,0.19,0.32,0.38,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.33,0.55,0.45,0.56,0.58,1	89.9%
PHI 89, NJN 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.24,0.31,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.22,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.18,0.13,0.23,0.17,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.63,0.67,0.72,1	89.9%