NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	122		Excitement	4.1 [1033]		MVP	Malik Beasley (DEN): +26.5%
Denver Nuggets	136		Comeback	2.4 [692]		LVP	James Harden (HOU): -4.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Gordon	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.13	0.02	0.01	9	81%	0.17	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.13	0.01	0.02	13	72%	0.14	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Chris Paul	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.14	0.00	0.05	13	74%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
James Ennis III	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	-0.00	5	75%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	6	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Clark	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.04	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.05	-0.03	0.06	21	59%	0.06	5	-0.11	9	56%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Beasley	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.28	0.03	0.04	17	85%	0.30	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.02
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.19	0.01	0.02	11	85%	0.18	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.02	-0.01	11	75%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.23	-0.01	0.11	15	86%	0.15	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	-0.00	-0.02	8	56%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	6	83%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Goodwin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Lydon	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	7	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	6	21%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.8	29.0	14.7	26.5	2.5	29.3	130.6
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +36.3%

HOU -0.6%

DEN +7.7%

DEN +5.4%

DEN +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DEN	NBA	HOU	DEN	NBA
this game	16.3	14.9	14.3	132.6	146.2	109.3
season	14.8	14.8		114.0	112.0
opponent	14.6	14.4		108.1	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.0	16.3	17.2	16.4	16.3
DEN	16.9	11.4	13.3	18.6	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Clark	5	5	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-16	18	11.8	16.5	-4.72	11.4	15.1	-3.68
Gerald Green	44	45	-0.06	-0.45	0.39	-0.11	2	-16	18	15.6	16.9	-1.33	16.8	13.1	3.72
Isaiah Hartenstein	14	16	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.16	3	-17	20	15.3	16.4	-1.15	16.7	14.5	2.18
Eric Gordon	50	51	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-11	8	16.5	16.0	0.48	14.0	16.0	-1.95
James Ennis III	48	49	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-11	8	15.0	17.7	-2.68	15.6	14.1	1.50
Kenneth Faried	58	58	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.01	-11	-3	-8	17.0	15.0	1.95	14.1	16.1	-1.98
Chris Paul	57	58	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.07	-9	-5	-4	16.0	16.6	-0.59	14.6	15.4	-0.88
Austin Rivers	46	48	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	-4	-6	16.0	16.5	-0.52	15.1	14.6	0.55
PJ Tucker	66	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.06	-17	3	-20	17.0	14.3	2.78	14.7	15.2	-0.42
James Harden	72	71	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	0.18	-24	10	-34	16.9	13.8	3.08	14.5	16.2	-1.76

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monte Morris	70	71	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.11	21	-7	28	14.4	16.4	-2.01	17.3	12.8	4.47
Malik Beasley	79	78	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.06	19	-5	24	15.2	13.1	2.05	16.5	15.0	1.49
Torrey Craig	67	65	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.11	20	-6	26	14.8	15.1	-0.27	16.0	16.8	-0.73
Nikola Jokic	61	62	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.01	14	0	14	14.4	15.8	-1.47	16.6	15.6	0.93
Paul Millsap	55	53	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.00	12	2	10	14.5	15.4	-0.96	16.8	15.5	1.30
Mason Plumlee	36	37	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	8	-2	15.6	14.5	1.10	15.8	16.6	-0.75
Trey Lyles	34	32	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	18	-22	15.7	14.4	1.30	15.3	16.8	-1.50
Will Barton	47	46	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.19	-6	20	-26	15.4	14.3	1.10	15.8	16.7	-0.83
Juancho Hernangomez	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	18	-22	14.5	14.9	-0.44	13.6	16.7	-3.08
Brandon Goodwin	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	18	-22	13.5	14.9	-1.41	10.0	16.4	-6.40
Tyler Lydon	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	18	-22	13.5	14.9	-1.41	10.0	16.4	-6.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.61,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.82,0.88,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 76, PHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.78,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.87,0.83,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1	95.1%
BOS 78, TOR 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
NOH 66, HOU 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%