NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	105		Excitement	7.5 [394]		MVP	Malik Beasley (DEN): +37.7%
New Orleans Pelicans	99		Comeback	1.6 [979]		LVP	Jahlil Okafor (NOP): -17.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Beasley	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.18	0.19	-0.00	14	76%	0.38	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Monte Morris	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.18	0.02	0.01	12	80%	0.19	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.1	0.05	0.06	0.00	16	59%	0.16	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	10	54%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Mason Plumlee	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	6	56%	0.06	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Will Barton	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	38%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Juancho Hernangomez	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Goodwin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Gary Harris	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	14	30%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenrich Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.12	0.09	-0.01	14	75%	0.28	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.08	-0.02	13	69%	0.23	4	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Darius Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	13	52%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Frank Jackson	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	9	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Frazier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	4	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Cheick Diallo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	7	37%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Ian Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	9	33%	0.01	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jahlil Okafor	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	0.00	15	47%	-0.08	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	24.0	14.6	25.2	1.8	30.1	123.4
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +24.4%

DEN +11.6%

NOP -5.4%

DEN +14.3%

DEN +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOP	NBA	DEN	NOP	NBA
this game	14.8	14.4	14.3	106.1	101.0	109.3
season	14.8	13.4		112.0	110.2
opponent	14.2	14.6		111.5	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.7	15.4	14.0	16.4	14.8
NOP	14.0	13.4	17.3	13.0	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	78	76	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.36	17	-11	28	14.2	17.3	-3.11	14.7	13.3	1.45
Gary Harris	72	70	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.37	13	-7	20	14.5	15.8	-1.29	14.1	15.2	-1.09
Monte Morris	83	82	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.25	16	-10	26	14.1	18.7	-4.59	14.9	11.9	2.94
Paul Millsap	70	67	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.40	11	-5	16	14.8	14.9	-0.08	14.4	14.3	0.11
Malik Beasley	60	60	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.32	0	6	-6	14.9	14.7	0.28	14.2	14.7	-0.51
Torrey Craig	14	14	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	6	-6	15.4	14.8	0.60	16.6	14.0	2.54
Juancho Hernangomez	10	10	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	7	-8	15.6	14.8	0.85	13.1	14.5	-1.45
Brandon Goodwin	4	4	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	10	-14	21.2	14.6	6.68	12.2	14.5	-2.24
Will Barton	54	54	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.05	-6	12	-18	15.6	14.0	1.62	14.1	14.7	-0.60
Mason Plumlee	29	31	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.08	-5	11	-16	14.9	14.8	0.08	14.3	14.4	-0.11
Trey Lyles	21	22	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	-0.04	-11	17	-28	17.3	14.2	3.11	13.3	14.7	-1.45

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cheick Diallo	34	33	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.03	5	-11	16	15.3	13.9	1.37	15.5	14.5	0.92
Ian Clark	41	40	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.10	6	-12	18	14.5	14.4	0.11	15.3	14.5	0.86
Frank Jackson	47	48	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-2	-2	13.9	14.9	-0.97	14.4	15.3	-0.94
Solomon Hill	39	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.00	-8	2	-10	14.4	14.4	-0.02	14.8	14.8	0.01
Tim Frazier	40	41	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.25	0	-6	6	15.1	13.9	1.19	15.7	14.2	1.44
Darius Miller	74	76	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.30	-1	-5	4	14.5	14.0	0.47	14.7	15.2	-0.44
Kenrich Williams	76	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.31	-1	-5	4	14.2	15.2	-1.07	14.9	14.5	0.47
Jahlil Okafor	64	66	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.30	-11	5	-16	13.9	15.3	-1.37	14.5	15.5	-0.92
Jrue Holiday	75	76	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.29	-16	10	-26	14.4	14.3	0.18	14.4	16.3	-1.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.57,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.33,0.28,0.29,0.23,0.32,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.07,0.1,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 100, BOS 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.51,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.02,0,0	93.7%
DET 78, HOU 70	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.28,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.29,0.37,0.26,0.22,0.39,0.31,0.15,0.02,0,0	93.0%
IND 112, DAL 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.36,0.39,0.27,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.13,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.34,0.2,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.11,0.22,0.02,0,0	92.5%