NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	106		Excitement	6.4 [584]		MVP	Sterling Brown (MIL): +18.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	116		Comeback	1.8 [1028]		LVP	Harrison Barnes (DAL): -25.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.05	-0.00	-0.05	14	54%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorian Finney-Smith	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	8	81%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	6	64%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Maxi Kleber	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Brunson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	15	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Powell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luka Doncic	-0.04	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	0.03	17	46%	0.03	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	11	54%	0.02	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.04
Harrison Barnes	-0.26	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.26,-0.25,-0.26	-0.15	-0.10	-0.00	15	25%	-0.19	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sterling Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.07	0.00	4	137%	0.21	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.04	-0.02	20	60%	0.23	5	-0.13	12	83%	0.03
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.12	-0.01	0.04	10	80%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	5	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.06	0.04	14	56%	0.09	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.07
Thon Maker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.07	-0.04	0.04	16	58%	0.09	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Wilson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.02	-0.03	18	36%	-0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	30.3	14.8	27.6	2.5	33.2	133.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +37.9%

MIL +15.8%

MIL +8.7%

DAL -13.3%

MIL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIL	NBA	DAL	MIL	NBA
this game	14.2	13.5	14.3	101.9	111.5	109.3
season	14.7	13.5		108.5	112.4
opponent	14.3	14.1		104.0	109.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.5	11.9	15.3	15.1	14.2
MIL	13.7	15.2	11.4	13.7	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Powell	33	33	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.21	7	-17	24	12.2	15.2	-2.99	17.9	11.4	6.46
Maxi Kleber	34	33	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-7	4	13.3	14.7	-1.42	17.0	11.8	5.12
Dorian Finney-Smith	69	68	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.43	7	-17	24	13.7	15.3	-1.69	15.1	10.3	4.84
Devin Harris	36	36	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.16	-3	-7	4	13.3	14.7	-1.36	16.1	12.1	4.04
Harrison Barnes	70	71	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.12	-7	-3	-4	14.7	13.3	1.42	11.8	17.0	-5.12
Wesley Matthews	71	71	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	2	-14	14.5	13.7	0.81	11.8	17.0	-5.12
Jalen Brunson	65	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	2	-14	15.1	12.8	2.24	12.6	14.9	-2.36
Luka Doncic	73	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	0	-10	14.2	14.3	-0.14	12.9	15.0	-2.10
DeAndre Jordan	69	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.07	-17	7	-24	15.2	12.3	2.96	11.5	17.4	-5.88

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Bledsoe	72	73	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.07	19	-9	28	12.3	16.0	-3.65	14.9	12.7	2.20
Brook Lopez	75	76	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.03	14	-4	18	12.2	16.7	-4.51	15.1	11.9	3.19
Khris Middleton	72	74	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	-1	12	12.4	15.8	-3.43	14.9	12.4	2.51
Giannis Antetokounmpo	77	79	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	0	10	13.3	14.1	-0.81	14.2	14.2	0.03
Sterling Brown	43	41	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.18	4	6	-2	13.2	13.7	-0.53	14.3	14.2	0.16
Malcolm Brogdon	73	71	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.23	0	10	-10	13.6	13.1	0.58	13.7	15.3	-1.58
George Hill	42	42	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.23	-2	12	-14	16.0	11.8	4.24	13.8	14.5	-0.69
D.J. Wilson	32	30	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.07	2	8	-6	13.7	13.4	0.36	13.8	14.4	-0.64
Thon Maker	7	8	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.08	1	9	-8	16.6	13.2	3.32	14.0	14.2	-0.24
Ersan Ilyasova	14	13	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	12	-14	19.6	12.5	7.13	10.4	14.8	-4.38
Tony Snell	13	13	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.06	-7	17	-24	17.0	13.0	4.03	10.2	14.8	-4.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 78, MIN 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.68,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.78,0.81,0.89,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.7%
DEN 89, SAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.57,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.99,1	94.3%
IND 95, NYK 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.91,0.94,0.99,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,1,1	94.2%