NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	106		Excitement	6.5 [557]		MVP	Trevor Ariza (WAS): +23.6%
Washington Wizards	113		Comeback	1.1 [626]		LVP	George Hill (MIL): -13.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khris Middleton	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.04	0.03	17	61%	0.17	3	-0.07	7	86%	-0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.02	8	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.03	9	72%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	8	37%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.03	-0.02	9	68%	0.15	4	-0.14	4	100%	0.01
D.J. Wilson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.04	5	50%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	0.04	7	62%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Bledsoe	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	21	39%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
George Hill	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.13	0.09	-0.02	14	71%	0.25	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.02	0.10	-0.03	17	54%	0.23	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.16	0.01	0.03	21	65%	0.19	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	69%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chasson Randle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	4	25%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tomas Satoransky	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.03	0.04	10	82%	0.11	6	-0.15	2	100%	0.00
Sam Dekker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Otto Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	7	44%	0.04	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	26.0	14.5	23.7	2.3	28.3	121.4
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +48.5%

WAS +6.9%

MIL -4.6%

MIL -0.9%

WAS +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	WAS	NBA	MIL	WAS	NBA
this game	14.1	14.4	14.3	106.0	110.8	109.3
season	13.5	13.8		112.4	109.8
opponent	14.3	14.3		112.4	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.0	12.0	13.8	15.9	14.1
WAS	11.7	15.7	14.4	16.1	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Bledsoe	60	59	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.19	5	-12	17	13.6	14.8	-1.20	14.8	13.9	0.90
Ersan Ilyasova	52	55	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.33	9	-16	25	13.9	14.4	-0.51	15.6	13.0	2.60
Malcolm Brogdon	61	64	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.39	11	-18	29	13.7	14.8	-1.13	15.8	12.1	3.71
Khris Middleton	75	79	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.20	2	-9	11	13.8	15.1	-1.32	15.0	12.2	2.85
Brook Lopez	66	63	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.22	0	-7	7	13.8	14.7	-0.83	15.9	11.9	3.98
Thon Maker	12	13	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.14	-13	6	-19	17.7	13.6	4.11	8.3	15.3	-6.96
Tony Snell	43	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	-1	-5	13.8	14.4	-0.60	13.1	15.3	-2.23
D.J. Wilson	42	42	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.10	-10	3	-13	14.7	13.7	1.01	13.8	14.8	-1.05
George Hill	34	34	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.11	-20	13	-33	14.8	13.8	1.01	11.3	15.9	-4.59
Sterling Brown	55	57	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.13	-13	6	-19	14.8	13.3	1.45	13.4	15.7	-2.34

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Otto Porter Jr.	67	64	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.32	10	-3	13	13.6	15.9	-2.38	14.0	14.4	-0.36
Trevor Ariza	82	82	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.28	5	2	3	15.0	11.9	3.03	14.2	13.9	0.29
Jeff Green	82	81	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.36	1	6	-5	15.1	11.3	3.83	14.0	14.6	-0.62
Tomas Satoransky	72	71	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.15	8	-1	9	14.7	13.6	1.06	14.5	13.2	1.25
Bradley Beal	82	80	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.13	7	0	7	14.2	15.2	-1.02	14.8	11.6	3.16
Sam Dekker	31	30	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	2	3	13.1	14.9	-1.80	13.7	14.3	-0.61
Chasson Randle	30	29	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	8	-9	13.6	14.7	-1.06	13.2	14.5	-1.25
Thomas Bryant	50	49	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.05	5	2	3	14.2	14.5	-0.28	14.7	13.6	1.07
Ian Mahinmi	14	14	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.07	-5	12	-17	14.9	14.3	0.55	10.5	14.7	-4.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.61,0.57,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.68,0.63,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.75,0.66,0.6,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.74,0.85,0.79,0.81,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 82, LAC 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.73,0.62,0.67,0.8,0.89,0.91,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.2%
UTA 89, GSW 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.67,0.66,0.73,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.0%
GSW 101, HOU 111	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.75,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.86,0.88,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.9%