NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	115		Excitement	4.5 [952]		MVP	Pascal Siakam (TOR): +15.5%
Toronto Raptors	125		Comeback	1.2 [1264]		LVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): -8.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.17	0.01	0.03	22	69%	0.19	3	-0.04	7	71%	-0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.02	6	92%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.00	7	67%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	-0.00	-0.05	10	50%	0.04	1	-0.00	12	67%	0.02
James Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Justise Winslow	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.04	10	41%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	0.04	19	43%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
Rodney McGruder	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	9	39%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	5	17%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.20	0.01	0.06	9	95%	0.16	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.01	0.01	10	81%	0.14	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.02	7	71%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.01	7	62%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.04	20	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	12	83%	0.01
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	-0.00	6	71%	0.09	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	9	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	12	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	6	33%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
OG Anunoby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.4	29.2	14.8	37.3	1.6	26.2	135.0
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +49.5%

MIA -0.3%

TOR +5.8%

MIA -4.8%

MIA -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	14.7	13.8	14.3	115.0	122.5	109.3
season	14.8	14.3		106.3	111.5
opponent	14.5	14.3		105.9	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	16.7	12.9	13.8	14.7
TOR	13.5	12.8	13.3	15.6	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Olynyk	34	33	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.33	17	-27	44	13.5	15.4	-1.86	15.0	13.2	1.74
Justise Winslow	64	66	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.42	15	-25	40	13.8	16.3	-2.46	14.2	13.1	1.10
Dwyane Wade	72	72	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.40	11	-21	32	14.2	16.1	-1.86	13.8	13.7	0.18
Bam Adebayo	77	79	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.25	1	-11	12	14.6	15.3	-0.69	13.6	14.5	-0.88
Hassan Whiteside	25	25	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.11	-15	5	-20	15.6	14.4	1.16	13.6	13.9	-0.26
Rodney McGruder	72	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	0	-10	14.5	15.4	-0.87	14.2	12.6	1.64
Wayne Ellington	48	49	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.10	-19	9	-28	15.3	14.2	1.08	13.3	14.2	-0.94
James Johnson	39	39	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	0.20	-25	15	-40	16.6	13.5	3.13	12.9	14.3	-1.45
Josh Richardson	69	73	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	0.08	-25	15	-40	15.3	13.4	1.99	13.5	14.6	-1.06

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kawhi Leonard	78	75	0.67	-0.17	0.84	-0.00	23	-13	36	13.3	15.5	-2.29	15.3	12.9	2.41
Pascal Siakam	64	62	0.65	-0.15	0.81	-0.08	25	-15	40	13.6	14.2	-0.58	15.5	13.4	2.15
Kyle Lowry	74	71	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.05	19	-9	28	13.6	14.2	-0.63	15.2	13.5	1.76
Jonas Valanciunas	51	51	0.56	-0.06	0.61	-0.15	24	-14	38	13.2	14.4	-1.27	15.5	14.0	1.51
Danny Green	62	60	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.01	19	-9	28	13.4	14.4	-1.04	15.3	13.9	1.34
Fred VanVleet	41	40	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.17	-7	17	-24	14.5	13.3	1.12	13.9	15.3	-1.34
Serge Ibaka	51	49	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.35	-14	24	-38	14.4	13.2	1.27	14.0	15.5	-1.51
Delon Wright	28	29	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.16	-9	19	-28	14.2	13.6	0.63	13.5	15.2	-1.76
OG Anunoby	33	34	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.29	-15	25	-40	14.5	13.4	1.11	13.5	15.4	-1.91
CJ Miles	28	29	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.26	-15	25	-40	14.8	13.4	1.42	12.9	15.5	-2.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.94,0.92,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 81, CHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.86,0.85,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
NOH 75, PHX 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.84,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
LAC 81, GSW 88	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%