NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	104		Excitement	6.4 [579]		MVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): +19.1%
Dallas Mavericks	113		Comeback	1.1 [642]		LVP	Kyrie Irving (BOS): -17.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.06	0.01	8	86%	0.27	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.05
Jaylen Brown	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	9	80%	0.14	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jayson Tatum	0.06	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.12	-0.00	0.05	14	75%	0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	0.02	0.07	10	65%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	40%	-0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Al Horford	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	11	36%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	6	29%	-0.07	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kyrie Irving	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-0.06	24	39%	-0.04	5	-0.13	1	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.16	0.03	0.02	12	80%	0.20	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
J.J. Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.04	-0.03	16	61%	0.18	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.03
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.06	-0.01	8	50%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Luka Doncic	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	-0.00	-0.02	11	62%	0.07	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	67%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	67%	0.08	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.02
Salah Mejri	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	8	44%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.01	-0.05	0.06	12	54%	-0.03	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	11	36%	-0.05	3	-0.06	3	33%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.8	24.2	15.3	35.3	2.8	33.4	136.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +29.0%

BOS -8.9%

DAL +9.4%

DAL +15.2%

DAL +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DAL	NBA	BOS	DAL	NBA
this game	14.1	15.2	14.3	104.0	116.5	109.3
season	13.9	14.7		109.9	108.5
opponent	14.1	14.7		109.7	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.5	16.4	11.9	15.2	14.1
DAL	15.3	14.9	13.4	17.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Rozier	37	34	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.22	2	-11	13	15.1	13.5	1.63	14.6	15.5	-0.86
Al Horford	67	66	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-12	15	13.1	16.0	-2.91	15.6	14.3	1.25
Jaylen Brown	64	62	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.14	-11	2	-13	13.9	14.5	-0.61	15.2	15.2	-0.04
Semi Ojeleye	38	34	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-9	9	15.3	13.3	1.99	15.3	15.1	0.14
Jayson Tatum	76	76	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.35	3	-12	15	13.2	16.7	-3.46	15.4	14.5	0.83
Kyrie Irving	71	71	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.01	-10	1	-11	13.7	15.0	-1.30	15.4	14.6	0.76
Marcus Morris	62	63	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-9	0	-9	13.3	15.3	-1.99	15.1	15.3	-0.14
Aron Baynes	33	31	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	3	-15	16.0	13.1	2.91	14.3	15.6	-1.25
Marcus Smart	52	48	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.28	-11	2	-13	15.3	12.7	2.64	15.0	15.3	-0.35

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	32	35	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.03	15	-6	21	15.5	15.0	0.53	14.7	13.7	1.02
Maxi Kleber	43	46	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.19	9	0	9	15.6	14.9	0.69	15.3	13.0	2.27
J.J. Barea	49	53	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.16	8	1	7	15.4	14.9	0.51	15.5	12.4	3.08
DeAndre Jordan	70	71	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.06	10	-1	11	14.9	15.8	-0.83	13.6	15.2	-1.54
Luka Doncic	65	65	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.01	8	1	7	15.2	15.0	0.21	13.6	15.0	-1.37
Salah Mejri	15	15	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	8	-7	16.5	14.9	1.61	14.0	14.1	-0.09
Jalen Brunson	17	17	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.20	-2	11	-13	14.2	15.4	-1.14	16.7	13.5	3.16
Wesley Matthews	69	68	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.29	-6	15	-21	15.5	14.4	1.15	12.9	16.6	-3.70
Dorian Finney-Smith	62	65	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.07	6	3	3	14.8	15.9	-1.16	13.8	14.6	-0.84
Harrison Barnes	63	65	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	13	-17	14.7	16.1	-1.36	13.5	15.1	-1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.66,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 90, UTA 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.82,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.96,1	95.0%
BOS 105, LAC 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.74,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.66,0.77,0.7,0.61,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.59,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	93.8%
NOP 92, MIL 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.68,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.88,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%