NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	109		Excitement	7.3 [420]		MVP	Jeff Green (WAS): +36.8%
Washington Wizards	117		Comeback	4.3 [561]		LVP	Jonathon Simmons (ORL): -20.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.05	0.00	14	68%	0.21	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
D.J. Augustin	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.02	0.00	10	71%	0.14	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Evan Fournier	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.09	0.09	0.00	-0.00	14	62%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Wes Iwundu	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	4	89%	0.09	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Jerian Grant	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.01	3	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.00	13	64%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Khem Birch	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Bamba	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	17	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jarell Martin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	10	25%	-0.07	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.16	0.20	-0.01	7	112%	0.41	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.09	0.09	-0.01	9	68%	0.21	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.02
Markieff Morris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.05	0.02	9	67%	0.13	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Tomas Satoransky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00	4	70%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
John Wall	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.01	0.03	15	66%	0.14	2	-0.06	8	62%	-0.01
Otto Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.22,-0.19,-0.22,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	20	48%	0.04	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.00	5	8%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	25.5	14.6	28.1	2.6	34.0	129.7
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +14.4%

WAS +17.8%

WAS +5.7%

WAS +10.9%

WAS +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	15.2	14.7	14.3	112.4	121.9	109.3
season	14.9	13.8		107.2	109.8
opponent	14.3	14.3		112.4	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.6	15.3	14.2	14.8	15.2
WAS	16.9	13.5	14.1	14.6	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wes Iwundu	32	31	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.04	4	-12	16	14.0	15.7	-1.68	14.5	14.8	-0.21
Khem Birch	9	8	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.03	-1	-7	6	19.0	14.8	4.24	15.2	14.6	0.61
Evan Fournier	62	60	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.23	3	-11	14	14.8	15.7	-0.92	14.6	14.8	-0.23
Jerian Grant	31	31	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.00	-6	-2	-4	17.3	14.2	3.09	14.6	14.7	-0.06
Aaron Gordon	71	69	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.27	3	-11	14	14.2	17.8	-3.62	14.6	14.9	-0.23
Mo Bamba	19	20	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.02	-7	-1	-6	17.2	14.7	2.49	17.2	14.0	3.24
Nikola Vucevic	69	68	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.25	0	-8	8	14.1	17.7	-3.65	13.9	16.7	-2.81
Jarell Martin	26	27	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	3	-14	17.8	14.2	3.62	14.9	14.6	0.23
D.J. Augustin	66	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.26	-2	-6	4	14.2	17.3	-3.09	14.7	14.6	0.06
Terrence Ross	48	49	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.15	-9	1	-10	15.5	14.8	0.77	15.2	14.1	1.10
Jonathon Simmons	52	52	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.19	-14	6	-20	15.9	14.3	1.57	14.4	15.1	-0.70

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	42	42	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.29	13	-5	18	14.2	15.1	-0.84	15.5	14.9	0.69
Austin Rivers	34	33	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.00	12	-4	16	14.1	15.0	-0.97	17.3	14.1	3.21
Bradley Beal	77	80	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.23	4	4	0	14.2	16.7	-2.49	14.3	19.2	-4.95
Markieff Morris	78	80	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	5	-2	14.9	13.7	1.19	14.8	16.6	-1.81
Tomas Satoransky	23	21	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.04	9	-1	10	15.0	14.6	0.47	18.2	14.3	3.87
Ian Mahinmi	12	11	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.05	8	0	8	16.5	14.4	2.07	19.2	14.6	4.54
John Wall	69	71	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.27	-3	11	-14	14.6	14.9	-0.23	14.2	17.8	-3.62
Kelly Oubre Jr.	16	15	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.00	4	4	0	18.8	13.9	4.95	17.3	14.8	2.50
Dwight Howard	60	61	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.05	-8	16	-24	14.4	15.2	-0.86	14.6	16.1	-1.57
Otto Porter Jr.	45	46	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	-0.01	-10	18	-28	14.5	14.8	-0.33	14.8	15.5	-0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.34,0.36,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.27,0.4,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.76,0.83,0.97,0.93,0.97,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 93, LAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.34,0.41,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.58,0.74,0.73,0.88,0.96,0.89,0.99,1,1	93.1%
ATL 102, NJN 116	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.52,0.6,0.69,0.76,0.86,0.85,0.99,1,1,1	92.9%
DET 83, MEM 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.59,0.59,0.78,0.89,1,1,1,1	92.9%