NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	80		Excitement	3.7 [1092]		MVP	Terrance Ferguson (OKC): +9.8%
Oklahoma City Thunder	98		Comeback	1.2 [544]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (HOU): -12.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
PJ Tucker	0.10	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	-0.00	6	93%	0.14	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Clint Capela	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	-0.00	12	65%	0.09	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
James Ennis III	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.00	-0.05	7	40%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Marquese Chriss	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Clark	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	6	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	0.00	0.06	6	67%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	19	46%	0.05	5	-0.11	3	33%	-0.02
Chris Paul	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.00	-0.00	11	42%	-0.04	5	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.16	-0.02	-0.04	11	9%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrance Ferguson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.01	-0.03	10	70%	0.12	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.03	0.04	-0.10	21	43%	0.12	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Steven Adams	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	12	58%	0.08	1	-0.00	9	56%	0.00
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	5	79%	0.08	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Nerlens Noel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	1	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	9	56%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Abdel Nader	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hamidou Diallo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Alex Abrines	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	0.01	12	54%	0.03	6	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.0	29.2	16.4	26.5	2.6	27.4	131.4
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +23.1%

OKC +7.8%

OKC +10.1%

OKC +9.7%

HOU -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	OKC	NBA	HOU	OKC	NBA
this game	15.8	15.7	14.3	87.9	106.5	109.3
season	14.8	12.9		114.0	108.9
opponent	14.9	14.4		106.4	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.7	16.2	17.1	15.5	15.8
OKC	14.1	13.8	17.1	17.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marquese Chriss	10	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-22	26	14.2	16.0	-1.82	21.2	15.0	6.22
Isaiah Hartenstein	11	12	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-17	16	16.5	15.7	0.82	13.0	16.0	-3.05
PJ Tucker	62	61	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.08	-4	-14	10	15.8	15.9	-0.16	16.0	14.9	1.18
Clint Capela	65	67	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.11	-12	-6	-6	15.7	16.2	-0.52	15.2	16.8	-1.58
Chris Paul	69	70	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	-11	4	15.4	17.3	-1.91	15.8	15.2	0.56
Gerald Green	31	32	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	-7	-4	15.2	16.1	-0.91	15.5	15.7	-0.28
James Ennis III	47	48	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-12	6	15.5	16.2	-0.74	15.2	16.2	-1.02
James Harden	73	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.05	-13	-5	-8	15.9	15.6	0.33	15.4	16.4	-0.96
Gary Clark	48	48	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.14	-18	0	-18	17.3	14.2	3.11	16.1	15.1	1.03
Carmelo Anthony	39	40	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.19	-22	4	-26	16.2	15.6	0.58	15.4	15.8	-0.36

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul George	68	68	0.70	-0.20	0.90	-0.33	35	-17	52	14.7	18.4	-3.68	16.5	13.7	2.79
Jerami Grant	66	63	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.20	25	-7	32	15.1	17.1	-1.99	16.7	13.9	2.79
Terrance Ferguson	58	57	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.18	24	-6	30	15.1	16.6	-1.58	16.4	14.9	1.50
Dennis Schroder	67	65	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.14	22	-4	26	15.0	17.3	-2.29	15.9	15.6	0.35
Steven Adams	63	62	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.17	22	-4	26	15.1	16.8	-1.62	16.1	15.2	0.91
Nerlens Noel	29	29	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.14	-4	22	-26	16.8	15.1	1.62	15.2	16.1	-0.91
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	21	-24	20.0	15.6	4.40	19.0	15.8	3.21
Abdel Nader	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	21	-24	20.0	15.6	4.40	19.0	15.8	3.21
Raymond Felton	24	25	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	19	-20	17.2	15.1	2.11	15.4	16.0	-0.53
Alex Abrines	36	35	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.22	-8	26	-34	16.5	15.1	1.44	14.9	16.4	-1.57
Patrick Patterson	25	27	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	22	-26	17.0	15.2	1.80	13.7	16.7	-3.02
Hamidou Diallo	22	22	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.24	-15	33	-48	18.7	14.7	4.04	13.7	16.5	-2.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 73, TOR 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.72,0.72,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
HOU 99, MIA 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
PHX 95, DEN 132	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.72,0.75,0.88,0.88,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%