NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	107		Excitement	5.3 [774]		MVP	Darius Miller (NOP): +17.5%
New Orleans Pelicans	101		Comeback	1.2 [1042]		LVP	Jrue Holiday (NOP): -15.3%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0.12	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.16	0.00	0.04	9	89%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Chris Paul	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.02	-0.03	19	52%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	8	56%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	28	50%	0.09	2	-0.03	8	75%	0.01
Clint Capela	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	11	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Eric Gordon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Joe Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	31%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darius Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.06	0.02	7	87%	0.18	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ian Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.01	0.03	9	94%	0.13	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Davis	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.02	18	65%	0.12	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Cheick Diallo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Larry Drew II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	44%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	11	45%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.05	0.02	16	54%	0.01	7	-0.16	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	25.6	15.4	27.2	2.5	35.6	132.2
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +11.4%

HOU +1.7%

HOU +21.6%

HOU +16.7%

NOP -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	NOP	NBA	HOU	NOP	NBA
this game	16.2	14.4	14.7	112.6	108.6	107.5
season	14.6	13.6		112.8	108.0
opponent	14.6	14.8		107.0	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.1	17.1	14.4	19.4	16.2
NOP	14.7	12.9	17.6	12.5	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	74	72	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.21	18	-12	30	16.4	15.5	0.90	14.6	13.9	0.70
Trevor Ariza	65	62	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.21	16	-10	26	16.4	15.7	0.71	14.1	14.9	-0.81
Clint Capela	60	57	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.10	18	-12	30	15.9	16.8	-0.96	14.8	13.7	1.10
PJ Tucker	60	60	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.16	14	-8	22	16.7	15.5	1.21	14.9	13.5	1.32
Chris Paul	66	66	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.22	7	-1	8	16.2	16.2	-0.03	14.8	13.4	1.34
Eric Gordon	50	48	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.17	-8	14	-22	15.7	16.8	-1.18	13.6	15.2	-1.64
Luc Mbah a Moute	52	50	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.26	-12	18	-30	16.4	16.0	0.45	13.2	15.8	-2.59
Ryan Anderson	21	22	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.12	-8	14	-22	16.0	16.3	-0.28	15.1	14.2	0.97
Joe Johnson	27	28	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.17	-15	21	-36	15.8	16.4	-0.62	14.7	14.3	0.45

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Drew II	9	10	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.03	3	-9	12	13.1	14.5	-1.42	16.2	16.2	-0.02
Cheick Diallo	23	23	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.14	6	-12	18	14.2	14.5	-0.30	16.0	16.3	-0.35
Emeka Okafor	23	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-4	2	15.7	14.0	1.78	13.8	17.0	-3.25
Ian Clark	59	60	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.36	6	-12	18	13.4	16.1	-2.66	17.8	13.6	4.20
Nikola Mirotic	45	47	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.27	2	-8	10	14.3	14.5	-0.21	15.2	17.2	-1.95
Darius Miller	56	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-2	-2	14.3	14.5	-0.24	17.9	13.7	4.20
DeAndre Liggins	41	41	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.08	-15	9	-24	15.1	13.8	1.25	14.9	17.2	-2.32
Jrue Holiday	83	84	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.30	-8	2	-10	14.5	13.9	0.56	16.1	17.2	-1.09
Anthony Davis	70	72	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.18	-12	6	-18	14.5	14.2	0.30	16.3	16.0	0.35
E'Twaun Moore	65	67	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.20	-12	6	-18	14.4	14.4	0.06	16.4	15.7	0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.54,0.42,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.23,0.23,0.31,0.22,0.14,0.1,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.29,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 123, TOR 116	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.25,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0	94.1%
IND 99, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0	93.9%
SAS 101, NOH 78	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%