NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	105		Excitement	6.5 [554]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): +26.1%
Toronto Raptors	108		Comeback	1.1 [684]		LVP	Chris Paul (HOU): -9.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.36,0.36,0.17	0.25	-0.02	0.06	22	78%	0.42	4	-0.25	7	86%	0.03
Eric Gordon	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1	0.02	0.07	-0.01	14	48%	0.14	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	10	52%	0.04	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.02
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	3	83%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Clint Capela	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	11	54%	-0.04	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Chris Paul	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	13	47%	-0.04	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.26	0.26	0.24	0.05	0.03	14	94%	0.32	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.02
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15	0.15	-0.01	0.13	-0.02	19	52%	0.22	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01
Malcolm Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	117%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	10	55%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	8	70%	0.13	3	-0.13	4	100%	0.04
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	13	42%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	26.2	14.6	25.8	1.7	32.3	127.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +35.8%

HOU -4.4%

TOR +12.2%

TOR +4.1%

TOR +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	TOR	NBA	HOU	TOR	NBA
this game	14.1	15.9	14.7	108.2	113.7	107.5
season	14.6	14.6		112.8	112.7
opponent	14.8	14.8		105.9	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.1	14.4	13.4	12.8	14.1
TOR	14.5	16.3	16.6	16.0	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	7	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.07	-6	3	-9	14.4	14.1	0.31	15.9	15.9	-0.02
Luc Mbah a Moute	46	48	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.09	-2	-1	-1	13.8	14.5	-0.69	16.5	15.2	1.31
Joe Johnson	33	34	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	1	-5	13.4	14.5	-1.09	15.4	16.1	-0.72
Eric Gordon	58	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-3	3	14.0	14.3	-0.32	16.1	15.5	0.59
PJ Tucker	75	71	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.43	5	-8	13	14.4	13.2	1.19	16.1	15.2	0.89
James Harden	68	65	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.34	1	-4	5	14.4	13.6	0.80	15.7	16.2	-0.43
Trevor Ariza	75	73	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.43	3	-6	9	13.9	15.0	-1.05	15.8	16.0	-0.11
Clint Capela	54	51	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	3	-9	15.0	13.1	1.89	15.6	16.2	-0.66
Chris Paul	69	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.31	-6	3	-9	13.9	14.8	-0.90	15.6	16.6	-0.95

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	53	55	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.36	7	-4	11	16.4	15.2	1.14	14.9	13.2	1.64
DeMar DeRozan	71	73	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.30	8	-5	13	15.6	16.7	-1.17	14.6	12.7	1.91
Fred VanVleet	45	45	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.33	0	3	-3	16.1	15.7	0.37	14.0	14.2	-0.19
Kyle Lowry	64	67	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.34	-3	6	-9	15.8	15.9	-0.09	14.3	13.9	0.35
CJ Miles	39	37	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	-1	5	15.4	16.2	-0.79	13.7	14.4	-0.71
Serge Ibaka	48	50	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	0	3	15.7	16.0	-0.25	14.2	14.0	0.20
Pascal Siakam	34	35	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.05	3	0	3	15.4	16.1	-0.67	13.2	14.7	-1.48
Norman Powell	61	63	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.33	-7	10	-17	16.1	15.4	0.77	14.4	13.7	0.63
Malcolm Miller	21	21	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	3	-3	16.6	15.7	0.96	13.1	14.4	-1.34
Jakob Poeltl	39	40	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.06	0	3	-3	15.7	16.0	-0.26	13.3	14.7	-1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.8,0.88,0.87,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.81,0.83,0.72,0.78,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.88,0.86,0.79,0.81,0.7,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.81,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.57,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 89, CLE 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.82,0.78,0.86,0.83,0.87,0.89,0.89,0.92,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.88,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.88,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.57,0.58,1	93.0%
POR 87, VAN 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.77,0.74,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.85,0.91,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.74,0.85,0.82,0.92,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.94,0.85,0.95,1	92.0%
TOR 103, POR 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.95,0.94,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.79,0.68,0.74,1	91.8%