NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	8.2 [251]		MVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): +36.5%
Detroit Pistons	111		Comeback	2.3 [648]		LVP	Blake Griffin (DET): -21.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.36	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.36	0.23	0.16	0.02	23	67%	0.36	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Wayne Ellington	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.06	0.17	-0.00	9	58%	0.23	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.03	0.01	13	73%	0.17	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	19	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.08	-0.07	0.03	12	72%	0.11	3	-0.14	1	100%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Tyler Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.14	-0.06	-0.01	6	0%	-0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.25	0.25	0.19	0.08	0.02	14	83%	0.28	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.09	0.12	0.00	8	81%	0.26	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Langston Galloway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.09	-0.00	8	68%	0.17	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	-0.02	0.14	-0.01	10	52%	0.22	3	-0.09	5	100%	0.04
Andre Drummond	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	15	70%	0.30	6	-0.21	3	33%	-0.04
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.00	7	57%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Willie Reed	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Henry Ellenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blake Griffin	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.21	-0.21	-0.11	-0.10	0.00	19	38%	-0.09	3	-0.12	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.3	24.3	14.5	24.2	2.0	31.0	123.7
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +24.6%

DET +14.9%

DET +26.4%

MIA -16.8%

DET +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	15.3	14.7	14.7	110.3	116.8	107.5
season	15.1	14.9		105.4	106.4
opponent	14.7	14.6		106.3	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.4	15.0	13.4	17.7	15.3
DET	15.2	13.2	16.1	14.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justise Winslow	51	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	2	-8	14.6	16.0	-1.44	15.2	14.2	0.97
Kelly Olynyk	81	78	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.45	10	-14	24	15.1	16.2	-1.08	14.6	15.2	-0.65
Bam Adebayo	50	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	7	-18	15.2	15.4	-0.18	14.9	14.6	0.30
Tyler Johnson	46	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.12	-5	1	-6	15.1	15.4	-0.30	13.7	15.7	-1.94
Goran Dragic	69	67	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-1	-2	15.4	15.1	0.31	15.5	12.7	2.82
Josh Richardson	76	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.30	-2	-2	0	15.3	15.1	0.25	14.2	16.4	-2.22
Wayne Ellington	57	58	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.45	2	-6	8	15.4	15.1	0.28	14.9	14.5	0.40
James Johnson	55	57	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.44	-5	1	-6	16.1	14.2	1.85	14.7	14.7	-0.05

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Drummond	70	75	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.32	16	-12	28	13.4	18.5	-5.12	16.2	12.2	4.02
Stanley Johnson	65	67	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.41	9	-5	14	15.0	14.1	0.84	15.7	14.4	1.24
Ish Smith	76	79	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.37	8	-4	12	15.1	13.1	2.07	15.5	14.3	1.17
Anthony Tolliver	59	57	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.44	3	1	2	13.2	17.1	-3.92	15.9	14.4	1.51
Blake Griffin	69	71	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.26	2	2	0	15.7	12.0	3.78	15.4	14.9	0.55
Willie Reed	3	3	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	5	-6	21.7	14.5	7.19	4.3	15.6	-11.30
Langston Galloway	42	41	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.07	-4	8	-12	15.8	13.8	1.98	13.9	16.3	-2.44
Reggie Bullock	74	76	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.07	-2	6	-8	14.4	15.7	-1.23	14.7	17.5	-2.85
Henry Ellenson	17	16	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.11	-11	15	-26	15.6	14.5	1.08	14.1	15.5	-1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.31,0.48,0.39,0.45,0.46,0.62,0.79,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.54,0.66,0.32,0.63,0.84,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 74, NYK 82	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.67,0.65,0.48,0.52,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.61,0.72,0.94,0.99,1	91.1%
BOS 79, MIL 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.48,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.35,0.44,0.4,0.52,0.54,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.72,0.89,0.98,1	90.9%
PHI 103, NYK 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.6,0.53,0.39,0.63,0.91,0.95,1	90.7%