NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	2.5 [1249]		MVP	Markieff Morris (WAS): +9.3%
Washington Wizards	130		Comeback	1.1 [1265]		LVP	Arron Afflalo (ORL): -5.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Adreian Payne	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.00	-0.03	4	87%	0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.03	9	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	0.00	0.04	4	89%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Elfrid Payton	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.17	-0.00	0.15	16	75%	0.05	3	-0.03	8	100%	0.01
Wes Iwundu	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	8	67%	0.02	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jonathon Simmons	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	13	54%	0.04	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	15	53%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	7	19%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Jamel Artis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	6	21%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Markieff Morris	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.00	-0.04	10	67%	0.10	2	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	11	70%	0.09	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.00	0.02	10	71%	0.09	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.14	0.00	0.05	8	95%	0.11	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.03	9	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Otto Porter Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.16	-0.00	0.12	10	81%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	5	82%	0.06	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	45%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Tomas Satoransky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	55%	0.00	1	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris McCullough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Frazier	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	-0.05	9	48%	-0.00	6	-0.05	3	67%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.0	26.3	15.2	25.4	2.3	27.6	128.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +29.5%

WAS +10.7%

WAS +13.7%

ORL -2.4%

ORL -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	15.2	14.4	14.7	106.2	132.7	107.5
season	14.6	14.8		104.2	108.2
opponent	14.7	14.5		107.9	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.6	16.1	15.0	13.9	15.2
WAS	13.8	14.5	15.0	14.3	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Vucevic	10	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.04	-3	-24	21	18.9	14.7	4.18	12.0	14.7	-2.66
Marreese Speights	28	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.16	-11	-16	5	13.7	15.7	-2.02	14.5	14.4	0.13
Arron Afflalo	24	24	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.29	4	-31	35	14.1	15.5	-1.37	15.6	14.0	1.58
Mario Hezonja	74	74	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.14	-11	-16	5	14.8	16.3	-1.51	14.3	14.6	-0.31
Wes Iwundu	48	50	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.43	-21	-6	-15	16.4	14.0	2.42	13.6	15.2	-1.69
Jamel Artis	44	46	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.11	-12	-15	3	14.2	16.0	-1.78	13.6	15.1	-1.47
Jonathon Simmons	50	50	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.23	-17	-10	-7	15.6	14.7	0.92	14.8	14.0	0.76
Bismack Biyombo	47	48	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-21	15	15.6	14.7	0.94	15.0	13.8	1.16
Adreian Payne	38	39	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.31	-21	-6	-15	15.9	14.7	1.17	14.8	14.1	0.68
Elfrid Payton	73	73	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.02	-11	-16	5	14.8	16.2	-1.40	14.5	13.9	0.63
D.J. Augustin	49	49	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.43	-26	-1	-25	15.0	15.3	-0.35	14.4	14.4	0.04

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Oubre Jr.	57	56	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.07	19	8	11	14.5	14.2	0.25	14.8	15.6	-0.75
John Wall	64	63	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.00	11	16	-5	14.1	14.9	-0.85	14.8	15.7	-0.89
Ian Mahinmi	45	43	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.18	17	10	7	14.3	14.5	-0.18	16.0	14.5	1.43
Jodie Meeks	38	37	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.34	22	5	17	14.3	14.4	-0.16	15.5	14.9	0.62
Mike Scott	33	33	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.22	18	9	9	14.7	14.2	0.47	16.7	14.4	2.29
Bradley Beal	64	63	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.00	8	19	-11	14.1	15.0	-0.94	14.8	15.8	-0.94
Markieff Morris	57	56	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.08	4	23	-19	14.1	14.7	-0.59	14.7	15.8	-1.08
Tomas Satoransky	34	34	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.29	16	11	5	14.9	14.1	0.85	15.7	14.8	0.89
Otto Porter Jr.	45	46	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.17	10	17	-7	14.2	14.5	-0.35	15.6	14.8	0.82
Marcin Gortat	30	31	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.17	-5	32	-37	15.0	14.1	0.88	15.7	14.9	0.86
Jason Smith	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	22	-17	14.9	14.3	0.53	12.1	15.4	-3.30
Chris McCullough	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	22	-17	14.9	14.3	0.53	12.1	15.4	-3.30
Tim Frazier	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	22	-17	15.7	14.3	1.43	11.7	15.4	-3.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.72,0.75,0.83,0.83,0.8,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 79, OKC 110	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.85,0.83,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%
MIN 86, SEA 117	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%
MIN 97, ATL 109	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.79,0.84,0.87,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%