NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	93		Excitement	3.5 [1130]		MVP	Anthony Tolliver (DET): +18.6%
Dallas Mavericks	110		Comeback	2.1 [612]		LVP	Tobias Harris (DET): -15.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Tolliver	0.19	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.02	0.02	7	100%	0.19	1	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Stanley Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.13	0.00	0.08	7	80%	0.06	0	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Luke Kennard	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	69%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Henry Ellenson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Moreland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boban Marjanovic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.09	0.00	-0.08	4	33%	0.02	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Langston Galloway	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	4	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.08	10	71%	0.02	3	-0.05	1	100%	-0.00
Reggie Bullock	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	9	33%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.03	-0.02	16	29%	-0.11	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.J. Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.02	6	92%	0.11	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yogi Ferrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	7	79%	0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Smith Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	10	60%	0.10	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.00	-0.03	4	78%	0.07	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.02	10	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.03	9	60%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Collinsworth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.04	2	75%	0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.13	0.00	0.10	15	69%	0.07	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	75%	-0.01	2	-0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Salah Mejri	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Maxi Kleber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.5	30.7	14.6	27.1	0.2	26.8	125.4
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +43.0%

DET -3.3%

DAL +2.0%

DAL +8.8%

DET -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DAL	NBA	DET	DAL	NBA
this game	14.5	16.3	14.7	98.9	118.3	107.5
season	14.9	15.4		106.4	105.3
opponent	14.3	14.7		108.1	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	12.8	15.4	16.3	13.6	14.5
DAL	18.0	14.6	16.4	16.4	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Drummond	42	43	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.11	10	-27	37	14.4	14.6	-0.18	16.8	15.9	0.89
Henry Ellenson	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-20	23	12.6	14.7	-2.03	14.6	16.5	-1.87
Luke Kennard	34	35	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-20	23	13.1	15.2	-2.09	16.5	16.2	0.29
Langston Galloway	35	34	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.05	-7	-10	3	13.7	14.9	-1.22	16.2	16.4	-0.20
Boban Marjanovic	31	30	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.22	1	-18	19	13.2	15.1	-1.92	15.6	16.7	-1.13
Ish Smith	44	44	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	-7	-3	14.5	14.5	-0.05	17.4	15.4	1.96
Anthony Tolliver	60	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	-10	3	14.4	14.6	-0.17	16.2	16.6	-0.40
Reggie Jackson	42	41	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.01	-10	-7	-3	14.9	14.2	0.68	15.6	16.9	-1.38
Stanley Johnson	53	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.07	-14	-3	-11	15.1	13.7	1.41	16.8	15.7	1.08
Eric Moreland	19	18	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.27	-22	5	-27	16.3	14.0	2.30	17.3	16.1	1.24
Tobias Harris	55	55	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.09	-16	-1	-15	14.6	14.3	0.34	16.1	16.7	-0.55
Reggie Bullock	47	46	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.06	-16	-1	-15	15.4	13.5	1.89	15.9	16.8	-0.92

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Matthews	51	52	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.18	21	-4	25	16.0	16.8	-0.78	15.2	13.6	1.60
Devin Harris	30	33	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.11	18	-1	19	17.0	16.0	0.93	16.1	13.6	2.48
Harrison Barnes	58	61	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.25	22	-5	27	16.3	16.4	-0.11	15.1	13.3	1.86
Yogi Ferrell	59	60	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.05	15	2	13	17.2	14.9	2.24	14.3	14.8	-0.45
J.J. Barea	37	36	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.10	16	1	15	16.0	16.5	-0.51	14.7	14.4	0.30
Salah Mejri	27	27	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.18	17	0	17	16.9	16.1	0.84	17.0	13.4	3.59
Dirk Nowitzki	53	52	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	16	-15	16.0	16.8	-0.82	13.9	15.2	-1.29
Dwight Powell	41	41	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.11	0	17	-17	16.7	16.1	0.63	13.4	15.3	-1.93
Dennis Smith Jr.	44	44	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.21	-6	23	-29	15.3	17.2	-1.93	13.6	15.2	-1.63
Kyle Collinsworth	27	25	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	21	-25	16.0	16.5	-0.47	13.6	14.8	-1.20
Maxi Kleber	38	39	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.29	-15	32	-47	16.5	16.2	0.28	12.9	15.6	-2.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.7,0.82,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.79,0.85,0.88,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 92, MEM 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
POR 79, UTA 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	95.6%
MIL 109, BOS 124	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.49,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%