NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	122		Excitement	7.5 [370]		MVP	Kyle Kuzma (LAL): +42.3%
Houston Rockets	116		Comeback	1.4 [111]		LVP	Jordan Clarkson (LAL): -11.2%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Kuzma	0.42	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42	0.36	0.09	0.03	17	86%	0.42	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.01
Corey Brewer	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.18	0.12	0.02	9	84%	0.28	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Larry Nance Jr.	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	6	72%	0.13	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Andrew Bogut	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	100%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Alex Caruso	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Hart	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	11	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Brandon Ingram	-0.07	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.01	-0.02	15	36%	-0.04	2	-0.03	6	67%	0.05
Lonzo Ball	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	14	46%	0.07	5	-0.14	7	57%	-0.01
Jordan Clarkson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	10	19%	-0.11	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.15	0.15	0.04	0.09	-0.02	21	50%	0.16	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.03	-0.05	14	60%	0.14	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.25	-0.07	0.16	27	68%	0.16	6	-0.15	21	81%	0.01
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.02	8	56%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tarik Black	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	7	47%	0.04	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	7	14%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	4	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.5	29.6	14.0	29.7	1.8	40.2	142.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +32.9%

LAL +4.2%

LAL +5.3%

LAL +4.7%

LAL +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	HOU	NBA	LAL	HOU	NBA
this game	13.7	14.2	14.7	118.4	111.5	107.5
season	13.7	14.6		105.7	112.8
opponent	14.8	14.8		105.6	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	12.7	16.1	12.9	13.0	13.7
HOU	14.4	13.2	15.9	13.1	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Brewer	54	54	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.23	18	-12	30	13.6	13.7	-0.16	14.4	13.9	0.49
Kyle Kuzma	86	88	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.26	9	-3	12	12.9	17.2	-4.29	14.2	14.1	0.06
Jordan Clarkson	39	39	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.03	15	-9	24	14.2	13.3	0.85	14.4	14.0	0.42
Larry Nance Jr.	53	52	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	-5	16	12.5	14.8	-2.27	13.8	14.6	-0.81
Lonzo Ball	82	84	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.20	6	0	6	12.9	16.4	-3.49	14.0	14.9	-0.96
Andrew Bogut	34	35	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.22	4	2	2	14.4	13.3	1.09	15.5	13.5	1.94
Brandon Ingram	85	86	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.40	-5	11	-16	14.1	11.6	2.54	14.2	14.1	0.14
Alex Caruso	7	6	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.08	7	-1	8	14.1	13.6	0.53	14.0	14.2	-0.18
Julius Randle	16	16	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.09	-12	18	-30	15.7	13.3	2.49	13.2	14.3	-1.09
Josh Hart	59	60	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	0.28	-23	29	-52	14.7	12.2	2.44	13.9	14.6	-0.72

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	57	56	0.22	-0.72	0.93	-0.28	17	-23	40	13.6	14.9	-1.31	13.8	13.4	0.41
Tarik Black	11	12	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.05	-7	1	-8	11.1	14.5	-3.45	11.9	13.9	-1.96
Trevor Ariza	95	96	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.33	3	-9	12	14.2	13.6	0.68	13.9	10.6	3.30
James Harden	95	93	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.37	4	-10	14	14.1	14.4	-0.30	13.5	14.7	-1.16
Eric Gordon	81	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.31	-2	-4	2	13.5	16.4	-2.90	13.1	15.4	-2.25
PJ Tucker	73	74	-0.45	-0.06	-0.39	-0.24	-7	1	-8	14.5	13.5	0.94	14.1	12.4	1.72
Chris Paul	51	50	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.05	-16	10	-26	15.4	13.0	2.47	14.8	12.6	2.20
Ryan Anderson	57	55	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.09	-22	16	-38	14.7	13.5	1.25	12.7	14.7	-2.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.36,0.43,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.55,0.57,0.43,0.45,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.37,0.41,0.3,0.22,0.03,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 106, SAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.32,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.46,0.52,0.59,0.45,0.3,0.33,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.35,0.22,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0	91.6%
ORL 102, WAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.44,0.3,0.37,0.43,0.51,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.36,0.29,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.02,0,0	91.3%
DET 101, PHX 93	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.27,0.41,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.06,0.01,0.02,0,0	91.1%