NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	99		Excitement	8.5 [207]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +29.7%
Cleveland Cavaliers	102		Comeback	5.8 [269]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (CLE): -7.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyrie Irving	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.15	0.07	0.10	0.01	17	61%	0.22	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Terry Rozier	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.02	0.14	0.01	6	56%	0.14	0	0.00	4	100%	0.19
Jayson Tatum	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.24,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.02	12	52%	0.24	1	-0.16	3	100%	0.01
Jaylen Brown	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.06,0.15,0.06,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	23	52%	0.08	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Gordon Hayward	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.08	0.07	-0.01	16	34%	0.04	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Aron Baynes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.05	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Al Horford	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	7	71%	0.02
Shane Larkin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.31,0.3	0.30	0.10	0.19	-0.01	19	69%	0.45	4	-0.16	4	100%	0.03
Kevin Love	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.26	0.26	0.02	0.22	-0.01	9	60%	0.30	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.05
JR Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	0.00	7	67%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.07	-0.02	3	67%	0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.06	-0.03	8	37%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	14	44%	0.05	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.03
Kyle Korver	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	10	46%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	3	56%	0.01	2	-0.08	3	33%	-0.06
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	10	36%	0.01	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.7	2.8	30.4	16.3	31.6	3.4	31.6	147.7
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +47.0%

BOS -11.2%

CLE +16.4%

BOS -2.0%

BOS -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CLE	NBA	BOS	CLE	NBA
this game	13.7	15.3	14.7	98.0	104.1	107.5
season	15.1	14.8		106.4	111.2
opponent	14.7	14.7		110.6	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.3	16.0	10.6	14.2	13.7
CLE	13.9	14.0	16.0	17.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Rozier	41	39	0.32	-0.82	1.13	0.20	4	-7	11	14.4	13.2	1.12	15.5	15.1	0.37
Shane Larkin	11	9	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.03	2	-5	7	13.6	13.7	-0.07	15.9	15.2	0.69
Gordon Hayward	11	11	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-6	9	14.2	13.6	0.54	16.5	15.1	1.34
Aron Baynes	40	39	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.28	-14	11	-25	15.3	12.7	2.64	14.6	15.7	-1.16
Semi Ojeleye	18	17	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.07	-10	7	-17	15.3	13.4	1.92	13.6	15.6	-2.03
Jayson Tatum	78	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.57	6	-9	15	13.1	15.8	-2.75	14.9	16.5	-1.61
Al Horford	68	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.67	8	-11	19	13.1	15.0	-1.88	15.8	14.2	1.54
Kyrie Irving	82	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.45	-1	-2	1	13.5	14.4	-0.88	15.0	16.5	-1.46
Jaylen Brown	83	81	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.42	-5	2	-7	13.5	14.4	-0.90	15.5	14.1	1.46
Marcus Smart	73	70	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.49	-8	5	-13	13.6	13.9	-0.31	15.6	14.5	1.02

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	73	74	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.51	7	-4	11	15.4	14.9	0.46	13.1	15.4	-2.33
LeBron James	84	86	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.47	2	1	1	15.3	15.1	0.23	13.9	12.7	1.14
Derrick Rose	66	67	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.65	-7	10	-17	15.4	15.1	0.30	12.9	15.3	-2.35
Kevin Love	60	61	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.41	1	2	-1	15.6	14.8	0.78	13.4	14.1	-0.66
Dwyane Wade	58	62	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.43	0	3	-3	15.5	14.9	0.53	13.2	14.5	-1.36
JR Smith	44	46	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.13	7	-4	11	14.8	15.7	-0.89	14.2	13.3	0.98
Tristan Thompson	38	40	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	1	1	14.8	15.6	-0.78	14.1	13.4	0.66
Iman Shumpert	25	25	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.15	6	-3	9	16.2	14.9	1.31	14.6	13.4	1.19
Kyle Korver	15	15	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.07	-1	4	-5	13.3	15.6	-2.36	15.4	13.4	1.99
Jeff Green	27	29	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.08	-2	5	-7	15.1	15.3	-0.16	15.2	13.1	2.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.48,0.47,0.37,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.22,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 92, CHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.82,0.83,0.89,0.89,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.71,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.51,0.62,0.58,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.38,0.46,0.55,0.91,1	90.5%
DEN 102, TOR 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.76,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.42,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.39,0.45,0.57,0.73,1	90.2%
MIN 82, SAS 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.8,0.72,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.54,0.32,0.72,1	89.7%