NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	113		Excitement	7.6 [333]		MVP	Gordon Hayward (UTA): +59.7%
Utah Jazz	120		Comeback	2.8 [843]		LVP	Shelvin Mack (UTA): -11.2%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl-Anthony Towns	0.24	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.28,0.2,0.28,0.24	0.14	0.11	0.01	21	68%	0.31	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Andrew Wiggins	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.13,0.12	0.03	0.08	-0.00	21	49%	0.14	1	-0.03	9	100%	0.06
Tyus Jones	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gorgui Dieng	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ricky Rubio	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.09	-0.06	0.01	14	67%	0.18	3	-0.16	11	100%	0.08
Brandon Rush	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kris Dunn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Muhammad	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.00	8	65%	0.08	2	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Omri Casspi	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.6,0.6	0.60	0.27	0.38	0.05	22	75%	0.67	2	-0.07	8	87%	0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.14	0.14	0.00	10	100%	0.40	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.04
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.00	9	65%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dante Exum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	5	90%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.00	0.02	9	76%	0.15	2	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Jeff Withey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Boris Diaw	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Hood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	8	35%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Joe Ingles	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.07	0.01	6	79%	0.06	3	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	6	21%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.3	28.6	15.5	23.6	2.5	36.3	134.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +78.3%

MIN -11.5%

MIN -11.2%

UTA +1.1%

MIN -6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	UTA	NBA	MIN	UTA	NBA
this game	16.0	14.9	14.8	121.5	129.0	107.7
season	15.3	16.1		109.3	108.0
opponent	15.0	14.7		105.0	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.7	16.1	15.6	16.7	16.0
UTA	15.6	14.5	15.7	13.9	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyus Jones	20	21	0.23	-0.73	0.95	-0.01	8	-15	23	17.6	15.6	2.05	15.2	14.8	0.34
Kris Dunn	20	21	0.23	-0.73	0.95	-0.01	8	-15	23	17.6	15.6	2.05	15.2	14.8	0.34
Shabazz Muhammad	38	38	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.16	2	-9	11	16.7	15.6	1.17	14.7	15.1	-0.41
Karl-Anthony Towns	61	61	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-6	5	16.5	15.2	1.21	15.2	14.4	0.79
Gorgui Dieng	51	51	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	3	-13	16.0	16.1	-0.14	15.2	14.6	0.60
Brandon Rush	55	55	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.13	-9	2	-11	15.6	16.7	-1.17	15.1	14.7	0.41
Omri Casspi	74	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.34	-3	-4	1	15.7	17.2	-1.47	14.5	16.5	-2.01
Andrew Wiggins	73	72	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.29	-15	8	-23	15.6	17.6	-2.05	14.8	15.2	-0.34
Ricky Rubio	73	72	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.29	-15	8	-23	15.6	17.6	-2.05	14.8	15.2	-0.34

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gordon Hayward	77	75	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.23	13	-6	19	14.9	15.1	-0.17	15.9	16.4	-0.50
Joe Johnson	63	64	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.20	13	-6	19	14.5	15.9	-1.39	15.7	16.7	-0.99
Shelvin Mack	55	56	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	4	-1	14.6	15.4	-0.75	16.1	16.0	0.07
Jeff Withey	9	9	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.07	6	1	5	14.9	14.9	-0.04	15.3	16.1	-0.79
Joe Ingles	66	68	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.15	3	4	-1	14.5	16.1	-1.62	16.0	16.2	-0.21
Rudy Gobert	54	56	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.20	1	6	-5	14.2	16.0	-1.81	16.2	15.8	0.34
Dante Exum	44	44	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.18	1	6	-5	15.8	14.1	1.74	16.7	15.5	1.17
Derrick Favors	31	30	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	5	-3	15.9	14.4	1.52	16.4	15.9	0.53
Rodney Hood	42	40	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	7	-7	15.0	14.9	0.09	15.8	16.2	-0.47
Boris Diaw	24	23	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.04	-7	14	-21	16.8	14.3	2.57	16.1	16.0	0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.78,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.74,0.8,0.87,0.68,0.85,0.78,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 91, ORL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.98,1	93.1%
WAS 76, MEM 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.94,0.98,1,1	92.7%
MIN 94, POR 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.87,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.84,0.96,1	92.7%