NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	113		Excitement	6.3 [596]		MVP	CJ McCollum (POR): +37.1%
Portland Trail Blazers	122		Comeback	2.0 [608]		LVP	Mason Plumlee (DEN): -13.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.15	0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.17	0.03	0.04	11	88%	0.20	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Gary Harris	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	0.00	0.02	14	61%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jamal Murray	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	14	45%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	13	59%	0.07	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Kenneth Faried	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.03	14	57%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Danilo Gallinari	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	15	35%	-0.04	1	-0.01	7	86%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.25	0.08	-0.04	24	72%	0.39	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.23,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.21	0.04	0.03	15	80%	0.31	3	-0.09	11	82%	0.04
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.05	-0.01	7	65%	0.16	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.01
Noah Vonleh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	6	27%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.11,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.06	-0.03	19	45%	0.01	3	-0.09	4	25%	-0.03
Allen Crabbe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	8	12%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.3	28.4	14.6	25.4	2.3	32.6	131.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +31.6%

POR +2.5%

POR +10.5%

POR +5.3%

POR +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	14.2	14.5	14.8	111.9	122.0	107.7
season	14.4	14.9		111.6	108.6
opponent	14.5	14.5		109.8	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	13.9	14.7	14.1	14.2
POR	15.5	14.9	13.0	14.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	21	20	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.00	-2	-7	5	17.0	13.4	3.64	15.4	14.3	1.14
Kenneth Faried	39	38	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.16	3	-12	15	13.9	14.3	-0.44	14.2	14.7	-0.54
Danilo Gallinari	65	65	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.20	4	-13	17	14.7	13.1	1.60	15.1	13.4	1.63
Jameer Nelson	72	73	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-8	7	13.2	16.4	-3.20	14.2	15.3	-1.05
Mason Plumlee	35	33	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	2	-13	15.5	13.4	2.10	14.8	14.3	0.44
Nikola Jokic	75	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.14	-8	-1	-7	13.6	15.7	-2.10	14.4	14.7	-0.31
Will Barton	43	40	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.06	-15	6	-21	15.2	13.4	1.73	13.9	14.9	-1.03
Gary Harris	80	80	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.24	-7	-2	-5	13.4	17.0	-3.64	14.3	15.4	-1.14
Wilson Chandler	75	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	-1	-7	14.0	14.6	-0.55	14.7	13.8	0.92

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	82	81	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	0	9	14.2	15.6	-1.37	13.5	17.0	-3.53
Noah Vonleh	61	64	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.05	13	-4	17	13.9	15.4	-1.51	15.0	12.7	2.27
CJ McCollum	82	83	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.14	9	0	9	14.7	13.6	1.14	14.3	13.3	1.02
Allen Crabbe	58	59	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	-3	15	14.2	14.9	-0.72	14.6	13.5	1.06
Jusuf Nurkic	68	68	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	5	-1	14.7	14.0	0.67	13.6	15.4	-1.78
Al-Farouq Aminu	59	59	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	5	-1	14.4	14.6	-0.16	13.8	14.7	-0.89
Evan Turner	48	50	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.23	-2	11	-13	14.6	14.3	0.30	14.2	14.1	0.06
Maurice Harkless	30	30	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	10	-11	14.9	14.3	0.63	14.6	14.0	0.66
Meyers Leonard	12	11	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	12	-15	16.6	14.2	2.38	14.9	14.1	0.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.59,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.95,0.89,0.87,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 81, POR 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.94,0.81,0.88,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
NOH 93, POR 102	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.55,0.59,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.99,1,1,1	94.0%
UTA 90, SAC 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.61,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.8,0.79,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.98,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.9%