NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	93		Excitement	5.8 [670]		MVP	Derrick Rose (NYK): +24.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	104		Comeback	6.4 [407]		LVP	Willy Hernangomez (NYK): -14.6%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.18	0.08	0.02	16	81%	0.28	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	12	46%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Justin Holiday	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ron Baker	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mindaugas Kuzminskas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.04	0.04	13	55%	0.03	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Kristaps Porzingis	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	15	41%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lance Thomas	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	6	14%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Willy Hernangomez	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.06	0.01	10	57%	-0.01	6	-0.14	3	33%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khris Middleton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.19	0.05	0.02	9	100%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.11	0.03	21	58%	0.22	1	-0.03	13	77%	-0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.07	-0.02	8	56%	0.13	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Mirza Teletovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.02	14	49%	0.02	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.02
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	7	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	8	22%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	27.3	15.3	24.5	1.8	29.2	123.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +10.9%

MIL +13.5%

MIL +5.0%

MIL +22.1%

NYK -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIL	NBA	NYK	MIL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.9	14.8	98.9	110.6	107.7
season	15.0	14.9		106.6	107.4
opponent	15.3	14.7		107.8	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	15.2	14.9	16.7	16.0	15.7
MIL	13.6	17.9	14.0	14.6	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Rose	76	77	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.14	4	-15	19	15.1	18.2	-3.13	15.1	14.4	0.72
Willy Hernangomez	55	56	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.11	0	-11	11	15.1	16.5	-1.36	14.7	15.2	-0.49
Mindaugas Kuzminskas	8	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-5	-1	18.0	15.5	2.52	17.6	14.7	2.93
Courtney Lee	71	71	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-8	5	15.6	16.1	-0.52	15.3	13.9	1.37
Kristaps Porzingis	73	72	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.02	-6	-5	-1	15.1	17.6	-2.48	15.5	13.0	2.54
Kyle O'Quinn	22	22	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	-6	1	17.0	15.3	1.77	13.2	15.5	-2.30
Lance Thomas	43	43	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.13	-7	-4	-3	16.7	14.9	1.81	15.8	14.2	1.56
Justin Holiday	24	24	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.11	-8	-3	-5	16.0	15.6	0.41	13.3	15.5	-2.17
Carmelo Anthony	80	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.21	-9	-2	-7	15.5	16.9	-1.45	14.5	17.5	-3.00
Ron Baker	18	17	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.04	-15	4	-19	18.2	15.1	3.13	14.4	15.1	-0.72

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matthew Dellavedova	49	49	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.23	18	-7	25	14.1	15.9	-1.76	17.0	14.2	2.78
Greg Monroe	55	56	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.18	15	-4	19	14.5	15.5	-1.01	16.7	14.2	2.53
Jason Terry	56	57	0.59	-0.10	0.69	0.24	12	-1	13	15.1	14.8	0.31	15.9	15.3	0.61
Giannis Antetokounmpo	82	82	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.19	10	1	9	14.4	18.6	-4.17	15.6	16.4	-0.83
Khris Middleton	55	54	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.03	9	2	7	15.1	14.7	0.35	16.1	15.2	0.90
Tony Snell	77	77	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.15	1	10	-9	14.8	15.8	-1.07	15.2	17.7	-2.46
Thon Maker	25	24	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.09	5	6	-1	14.2	15.2	-1.07	14.8	16.0	-1.15
Mirza Teletovic	12	12	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	10	-9	18.6	14.4	4.17	16.4	15.6	0.83
Spencer Hawes	14	14	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.09	-9	20	-29	18.0	14.4	3.59	13.1	16.1	-3.08
Malcolm Brogdon	45	45	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.05	-7	18	-25	15.9	14.1	1.76	14.2	17.0	-2.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.18,0.2,0.24,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 96, MIL 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.46,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.92,1	92.5%
NYK 92, CHA 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.54,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.68,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	92.5%
CLE 102, ATL 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.2,0.28,0.42,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.98,1	92.3%