NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	112		Excitement	6.4 [568]		MVP	Andrew Wiggins (MIN): +22.0%
Denver Nuggets	99		Comeback	1.4 [411]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -15.4%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Wiggins	0.22	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.22	0.19	0.05	0.02	26	63%	0.26	1	-0.04	11	73%	0.01
Shabazz Muhammad	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.03	0.00	7	79%	0.16	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Karl-Anthony Towns	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.09	0.02	19	52%	0.13	0	0.00	8	87%	0.00
Nemanja Bjelica	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	5	70%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Gorgui Dieng	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	9	39%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kris Dunn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	5	43%	-0.00	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.06	-0.02	17	58%	0.19	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.02	15	51%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	50%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	13	54%	0.08	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Johnny O'Bryant III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.07	-0.03	15	52%	0.04	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Juan Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	6	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.05	0.02	19	37%	-0.11	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	26.4	15.5	23.4	2.3	39.5	133.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +26.6%

MIN +16.4%

DEN -15.4%

MIN +22.1%

MIN +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	14.3	14.3	14.8	110.9	99.0	107.7
season	15.3	14.4		109.3	111.6
opponent	14.5	14.7		111.2	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.7	13.5	12.7	16.4	14.3
DEN	14.7	14.8	15.6	12.4	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl-Anthony Towns	79	78	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.08	13	0	13	14.7	12.8	1.96	14.5	13.7	0.80
Andrew Wiggins	79	77	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	3	7	14.1	15.1	-1.00	14.5	13.9	0.57
Nemanja Bjelica	61	61	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.05	8	5	3	14.6	13.8	0.84	14.2	14.5	-0.27
Brandon Rush	51	52	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.18	3	10	-7	14.5	14.1	0.37	14.0	14.7	-0.69
Shabazz Muhammad	36	35	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	7	-1	13.9	14.5	-0.56	14.1	14.5	-0.32
Ricky Rubio	71	71	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.02	8	5	3	14.2	14.6	-0.42	14.7	13.4	1.27
Gorgui Dieng	62	61	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.11	5	8	-3	13.4	15.7	-2.26	14.2	14.5	-0.31
Kris Dunn	42	40	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.07	5	8	-3	14.3	14.3	0.00	14.5	14.3	0.21
Tyus Jones	24	25	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.07	7	6	1	15.5	13.9	1.62	13.7	14.6	-0.89

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny O'Bryant III	11	11	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.04	2	-15	17	16.3	14.1	2.16	11.5	14.6	-3.10
Jameer Nelson	74	74	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-9	5	14.4	14.2	0.16	14.2	14.6	-0.34
Nikola Jokic	69	71	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.21	1	-14	15	14.2	14.6	-0.38	14.6	13.7	0.91
Will Barton	80	81	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.07	-7	-6	-1	14.1	15.5	-1.44	14.2	14.8	-0.61
Jamal Murray	46	45	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.11	-9	-4	-5	15.7	13.2	2.53	14.6	14.1	0.45
Juan Hernangomez	65	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	3	-19	15.1	12.9	2.21	14.8	13.3	1.56
Gary Harris	80	83	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.09	-13	0	-13	13.5	17.6	-4.12	14.3	14.6	-0.30
Mason Plumlee	75	74	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.06	-19	6	-25	13.8	16.0	-2.15	14.1	14.9	-0.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.17,0.26,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.07,0.22,0.12,0.17,0.07,0.01,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 104, TOR 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.03,0.03,0.01,0	94.0%
HOU 97, POR 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.13,0.22,0.14,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.04,0	94.0%
ATL 100, PHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.35,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.31,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.0%