NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	109		Excitement	4.9 [839]		MVP	Markieff Morris (WAS): +22.2%
Charlotte Hornets	99		Comeback	1.3 [423]		LVP	Nicolas Batum (CHA): -14.1%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Markieff Morris	0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.14	0.07	-0.01	13	74%	0.23	2	-0.01	5	100%	0.03
Otto Porter	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.02	11	64%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Burke	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	0.00	0.04	5	83%	0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Jason Smith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	4	75%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.03	-0.03	16	51%	0.09	4	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
John Wall	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	20	51%	0.08	5	-0.11	7	86%	-0.00
Sheldon McClellan	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.10	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Cody Zeller	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	-0.01	-0.02	7	68%	0.11	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	6	64%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	12	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	0.09	-0.01	0.08	12	58%	-0.00	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	8	47%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	24	38%	-0.03	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
Frank Kaminsky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	10	40%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.02	0.01	9	22%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.8	27.8	14.6	26.3	1.7	36.0	130.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +66.8%

CHA -11.3%

CHA -0.2%

CHA -9.8%

WAS +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	CHA	NBA	WAS	CHA	NBA
this game	15.2	15.3	14.8	116.0	104.2	107.7
season	14.4	15.1		109.9	107.9
opponent	14.8	14.9		107.9	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	12.7	16.0	16.7	16.0	15.2
CHA	14.0	16.0	15.3	16.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bradley Beal	62	60	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.10	16	-6	22	16.0	13.6	2.49	15.5	14.8	0.75
Markieff Morris	78	79	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.19	8	2	6	15.7	12.8	2.88	15.5	14.2	1.23
Otto Porter	70	70	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.14	7	3	4	15.4	14.7	0.72	14.6	17.1	-2.45
John Wall	76	76	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.11	6	4	2	15.3	14.7	0.59	14.7	17.7	-3.08
Marcin Gortat	55	56	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	8	-6	16.4	13.5	2.93	14.7	16.1	-1.41
Kelly Oubre Jr.	44	46	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.05	7	3	4	14.1	16.2	-2.05	15.3	15.3	0.02
Jason Smith	37	37	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.05	6	4	2	13.7	16.2	-2.47	16.3	14.6	1.68
Sheldon McClellan	26	27	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	8	-6	12.7	16.1	-3.42	15.6	15.1	0.50
Trey Burke	22	24	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.15	-4	14	-18	14.7	15.4	-0.68	17.1	14.7	2.42

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ramon Sessions	29	28	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	-4	-2	17.1	14.5	2.63	13.4	16.0	-2.53
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	56	55	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.05	-8	-2	-6	15.1	15.5	-0.45	14.3	16.4	-2.11
Roy Hibbert	24	23	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.04	-9	-1	-8	17.5	14.5	3.03	12.8	16.0	-3.15
Marvin Williams	57	57	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-10	10	14.5	16.4	-1.96	16.2	13.7	2.43
Frank Kaminsky	40	39	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	0	-10	16.2	14.6	1.69	13.5	16.4	-2.89
Cody Zeller	69	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.25	-1	-9	8	14.6	17.2	-2.59	16.2	12.6	3.60
Marco Belinelli	58	55	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-8	6	15.0	15.7	-0.70	14.7	15.8	-1.10
Kemba Walker	69	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.20	-7	-3	-4	14.6	17.0	-2.38	16.0	13.0	3.01
Nicolas Batum	73	74	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.23	-7	-3	-4	15.5	14.5	1.07	16.1	11.7	4.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 90, UTA 80	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.07,0,0,0.01,0,0	95.0%
TOR 99, CHI 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.09,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.12,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.8%
CHA 105, CHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.29,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0	94.8%