NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	102		Excitement	8.9 [162]		MVP	Lou Williams (LAL): +31.0%
Los Angeles Lakers	97		Comeback	3.5 [449]		LVP	Julius Randle (LAL): -18.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.22	0.09	0.13	0.00	18	56%	0.22	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Marcus Morris	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.09	-0.00	18	61%	0.23	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Aron Baynes	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	7	43%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.11,-0.17,0.02,-0.08,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	16	46%	0.05	2	-0.12	3	100%	0.03
Andre Drummond	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	17	38%	-0.07	2	-0.03	5	40%	-0.05
Reggie Bullock	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	6	31%	-0.07	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.04

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.49,0.33,0.33,0.31	0.31	0.20	0.12	0.00	14	72%	0.33	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.05
Tarik Black	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	2	86%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	12	62%	0.14	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Nick Young	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	47%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Ivica Zubac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	7	57%	0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Ingram	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	7	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.11
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D'Angelo Russell	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.14	-0.02	18	53%	-0.04	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.00
Julius Randle	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-0.02	6	17%	-0.10	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.2	2.3	35.7	134.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +23.1%

LAL -14.0%

DET +10.4%

DET +23.0%

DET +7.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	LAL	NBA	DET	LAL	NBA
this game	14.8	14.6	14.8	104.1	99.0	107.7
season	15.0	14.5		105.0	104.8
opponent	14.4	15.1		111.6	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.4	13.5	14.4	15.7	14.8
LAL	13.4	15.8	15.6	13.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stanley Johnson	71	71	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.20	17	-12	29	13.9	17.1	-3.17	14.9	13.7	1.20
Tobias Harris	81	80	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.44	8	-3	11	14.3	16.9	-2.62	14.3	16.1	-1.77
Marcus Morris	87	87	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.44	-1	6	-7	15.1	12.3	2.82	14.4	16.4	-1.97
Aron Baynes	31	33	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	-5	15	13.9	15.2	-1.28	15.9	14.0	1.91
Reggie Jackson	55	55	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.62	-11	16	-27	16.0	13.2	2.79	14.3	15.0	-0.69
Ish Smith	43	43	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.27	16	-11	27	13.2	16.0	-2.79	15.0	14.3	0.69
Andre Drummond	67	65	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.34	-5	10	-15	15.2	13.9	1.28	14.0	15.9	-1.91
Reggie Bullock	55	56	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.04	-11	16	-27	16.1	13.1	2.96	15.0	14.1	0.90

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ivica Zubac	18	18	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.04	1	-6	7	14.7	14.6	0.07	14.3	14.9	-0.61
Timofey Mozgov	44	44	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.13	6	-11	17	14.8	14.4	0.37	15.4	14.3	1.15
Nick Young	55	56	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.15	4	-9	13	14.7	14.6	0.10	13.9	15.9	-2.02
Tarik Black	24	23	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.09	-8	3	-11	15.3	14.4	0.95	14.0	15.0	-0.96
Jordan Clarkson	47	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.02	-7	2	-9	14.9	14.3	0.58	14.6	14.9	-0.30
Luol Deng	71	72	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.51	11	-16	27	14.6	14.6	0.08	16.0	11.5	4.46
D'Angelo Russell	54	53	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.37	2	-7	9	14.3	15.0	-0.74	14.9	14.7	0.20
Julius Randle	63	63	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.36	-5	0	-5	14.4	15.1	-0.69	15.0	14.5	0.50
Lou Williams	55	55	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.26	-10	5	-15	15.0	14.1	0.97	14.3	15.4	-1.10
Brandon Ingram	59	58	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.13	-19	14	-33	14.0	15.5	-1.50	14.4	15.3	-0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.53,0.54,0.25,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 91, ATL 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.3,0.35,0.39,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.28,0	92.1%
PHI 109, MIL 100	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.57,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.32,0.05,0	91.9%
NOH 93, UTA 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.72,0.59,0.54,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.34,0.48,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.53,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.43,0.28,0	91.8%