NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	106		Excitement	8.0 [270]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): +28.4%
Toronto Raptors	114		Comeback	13.5 [174]		LVP	Jonas Valanciunas (TOR): -14.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Green	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.01	0.03	-0.03	12	54%	0.13	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Jerebko	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	3	87%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Isaiah Thomas	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.12,0.2,0.07,0.07	0.11	-0.04	0.00	19	57%	0.10	1	-0.03	9	89%	0.03
Marcus Smart	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	11	64%	0.10	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Jae Crowder	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	10	45%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	10	59%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Jaylen Brown	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.00	11	58%	0.09	3	-0.15	2	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.29,0.29,0.28	0.28	0.12	0.14	-0.02	12	75%	0.36	4	-0.07	8	62%	-0.06
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.25,0.16,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.20	0.09	0.01	29	61%	0.30	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.03
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.01	5	58%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Lucas Nogueira	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	4	70%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.06	-0.01	10	55%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.05	0.03	18	43%	-0.09	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.8	28.2	15.4	31.1	1.8	37.4	139.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -4.1%

TOR +11.0%

TOR +42.1%

TOR +2.6%

BOS -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	TOR	NBA	BOS	TOR	NBA
this game	14.6	14.8	14.8	109.3	115.2	107.7
season	14.7	15.2		110.1	110.0
opponent	14.9	14.9		106.9	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.9	14.5	14.0	15.2	14.6
TOR	15.1	14.3	14.2	15.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	36	35	0.24	-0.74	0.99	0.10	5	-13	18	14.0	15.0	-0.96	13.9	15.2	-1.30
Amir Johnson	30	32	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.10	2	-10	12	15.4	14.3	1.16	15.9	14.2	1.65
Gerald Green	52	52	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.04	4	-12	16	13.9	15.5	-1.60	14.0	15.6	-1.60
Terry Rozier	6	7	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.03	2	-10	12	12.3	14.8	-2.45	15.1	14.7	0.41
Jaylen Brown	17	18	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	-2	-4	12.3	15.1	-2.83	13.7	15.0	-1.33
Jae Crowder	74	75	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	2	-12	15.2	12.7	2.53	15.3	13.0	2.38
Marcus Smart	77	79	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.36	-6	-2	-4	14.3	16.0	-1.79	14.6	15.3	-0.74
Al Horford	66	69	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.27	-10	2	-12	15.1	13.5	1.59	15.8	12.5	3.29
Kelly Olynyk	55	54	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.41	-7	-1	-6	14.3	15.0	-0.74	13.9	15.8	-1.87
Isaiah Thomas	72	74	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.28	-14	6	-20	15.4	12.3	3.11	14.7	14.9	-0.22

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	78	77	0.85	-0.35	1.19	0.29	19	-11	30	14.6	15.4	-0.79	14.4	15.4	-1.03
DeMarre Carroll	71	69	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.25	19	-11	30	15.0	14.2	0.71	14.4	15.1	-0.62
Jonas Valanciunas	55	53	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.25	17	-9	26	15.5	13.8	1.77	15.4	13.7	1.65
Cory Joseph	51	50	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.39	6	2	4	13.9	15.7	-1.85	13.9	15.4	-1.50
Kyle Lowry	85	83	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.23	7	1	6	15.4	10.6	4.79	15.2	11.0	4.24
Lucas Nogueira	47	47	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	9	-10	13.5	15.9	-2.45	14.2	15.0	-0.77
Norman Powell	8	9	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.01	-4	12	-16	13.7	14.8	-1.10	14.8	14.6	0.16
Patrick Patterson	39	39	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.13	-3	11	-14	16.2	13.8	2.30	15.7	13.9	1.74
Jakob Poeltl	15	14	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.01	-8	16	-24	15.3	14.7	0.60	12.6	15.0	-2.32
Terrence Ross	46	44	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.03	-12	20	-32	13.7	15.7	-2.02	14.2	15.0	-0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.54,0.42,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.16,0.07,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.29,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.13,0.25,0.46,0.68,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 84, MEM 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.49,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.2,0.3,0.21,0.29,0.35,0.25,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.13,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.24,0.54,0.78,0.99,1	91.0%
LAC 85, MIN 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.2,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.42,0.25,0.19,0.14,0.31,0.64,0.55,0.92,1	91.0%
PHI 76, HOU 77	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.16,0.24,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.19,0.54,0.85,0.72,1	90.7%