NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	99		Excitement	10.1 [63]		MVP	Sam Dekker (HOU): +9.9%
Detroit Pistons	96		Comeback	2.8 [488]		LVP	Ish Smith (DET): -24.5%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Dekker	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	-0.00	8	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0.08	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.02,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.08	0.00	0.06	-0.01	15	47%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	10	68%	0.14	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Anderson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	9	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Beverley	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	64%	0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	3	70%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
James Harden	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.06	0.02	17	53%	0.20	6	-0.19	19	74%	-0.17
Nene	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	-0.02	-0.06	4	50%	-0.00	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	5	0%	-0.18	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.06	0.06	0.10	-0.05	-0.00	15	70%	0.23	4	-0.18	7	71%	-0.11
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.05	0.10	-0.00	3	25%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.07
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.11,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	15	41%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	-0.02	9	55%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Tobias Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	8	53%	0.02	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.06	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.19	-0.19	-0.17	-0.03	-0.01	18	31%	-0.10	3	-0.09	6	17%	-0.30
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.24	0.01	9	50%	-0.19	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	0.8	31.9	14.0	33.4	0.3	41.0	144.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +43.1%

DET -8.8%

HOU +10.0%

HOU +3.9%

HOU +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DET	NBA	HOU	DET	NBA
this game	14.9	15.3	14.8	104.2	100.0	107.7
season	13.7	15.0		113.2	105.0
opponent	15.1	14.9		106.4	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.0	13.9	15.4	15.3	14.9
DET	14.4	13.8	13.9	19.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	74	76	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.58	6	-3	9	15.4	13.1	2.31	14.7	17.3	-2.64
Trevor Ariza	67	68	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.60	5	-2	7	16.0	12.3	3.70	14.4	17.3	-2.86
Ryan Anderson	54	53	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.36	10	-7	17	17.1	11.9	5.22	15.5	15.0	0.56
Eric Gordon	60	61	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.29	4	-1	5	12.7	18.6	-5.91	16.2	13.6	2.57
Clint Capela	62	65	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.44	-5	8	-13	17.1	10.8	6.25	16.0	13.6	2.43
Nene	33	31	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.03	8	-5	13	10.8	17.1	-6.25	13.6	16.0	-2.43
Sam Dekker	52	50	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.17	3	0	3	13.2	16.9	-3.72	15.3	15.2	0.12
Patrick Beverley	45	48	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.17	-14	17	-31	16.2	13.7	2.48	14.6	15.9	-1.31
Corey Brewer	28	28	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.19	-2	5	-7	12.3	16.0	-3.70	17.3	14.4	2.86

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	33	34	0.26	-0.76	1.01	-0.01	9	-12	21	15.8	15.0	0.90	13.6	15.6	-2.08
Aron Baynes	31	32	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.01	5	-8	13	14.5	15.6	-1.05	12.2	16.3	-4.08
Reggie Bullock	20	21	0.14	-0.64	0.77	0.11	1	-4	5	16.0	15.1	0.93	12.5	15.6	-3.04
Marcus Morris	66	65	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.43	10	-13	23	16.0	13.7	2.32	16.1	12.2	3.94
Tobias Harris	43	43	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.28	4	-7	11	13.4	16.8	-3.42	15.9	14.1	1.85
Stanley Johnson	20	20	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.15	-17	14	-31	14.4	15.5	-1.09	14.0	15.1	-1.13
Jon Leuer	63	63	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.21	-6	3	-9	16.1	13.7	2.34	13.0	18.7	-5.77
Andre Drummond	65	63	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.42	-8	5	-13	15.6	14.5	1.05	16.3	12.2	4.08
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	78	75	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.55	-4	1	-5	14.7	17.6	-2.82	15.4	12.9	2.46
Ish Smith	61	59	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.43	-9	6	-15	15.4	15.1	0.32	16.1	12.9	3.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.31,0.43,0.36,0.24,0.36,0.21,0.25,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.13,0.34,0.43,0.34,0.48,0.47,0.64,0.59,0.53,0.68,0.37,0.45,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 104, GSW 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.77,0.73,0.69,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.31,0.26,0.32,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.39,0.47,0.36,0.32,0.26,0	91.3%
CHA 104, ORL 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.26,0.32,0.14,0.15,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.71,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.28,0	90.8%
SAS 107, DAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.3,0.38,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.2,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.58,0.47,0.35,0.53,0.69,0.46,0.32,0.08,0	90.7%