NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	106		Excitement	6.0 [629]		MVP	Marcus Morris (DET): +17.6%
Denver Nuggets	95		Comeback	1.0 [508]		LVP	Wilson Chandler (DEN): -15.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Morris	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.07	0.08	-0.03	15	57%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.08	0.01	11	58%	0.13	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Tobias Harris	0.10	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.00	15	59%	0.16	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jon Leuer	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	12	58%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	7	64%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	11	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Aron Baynes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	67%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Stanley Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	42%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	12	42%	-0.02	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.05	-0.02	10	64%	0.16	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.00
Juan Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	8	69%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	11	52%	0.04	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	9	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.02	6	58%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	14	59%	0.07	5	-0.13	4	75%	-0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	2	0%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	12	25%	-0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.3	26.8	14.8	25.3	2.3	29.4	123.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +48.1%

DEN -6.8%

DEN -5.2%

DET +15.8%

DEN -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DEN	NBA	DET	DEN	NBA
this game	16.2	15.5	14.8	116.5	104.4	107.7
season	15.0	14.4		105.0	111.6
opponent	14.5	15.1		111.2	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.9	16.7	15.2	19.3	16.2
DEN	14.9	17.6	14.8	15.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tobias Harris	70	68	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.08	17	-6	23	16.1	16.3	-0.22	15.9	14.1	1.81
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	68	69	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.08	22	-11	33	15.1	19.4	-4.38	15.3	16.0	-0.68
Ish Smith	56	57	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.03	10	1	9	15.7	16.9	-1.26	15.6	15.2	0.40
Andre Drummond	50	49	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.10	6	5	1	15.7	16.8	-1.08	16.5	14.3	2.22
Marcus Morris	65	68	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.10	6	5	1	16.0	16.5	-0.47	14.7	17.7	-2.96
Aron Baynes	39	39	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.16	2	9	-7	17.0	15.5	1.46	14.7	16.1	-1.43
Beno Udrih	32	31	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.17	0	11	-11	17.6	15.4	2.20	15.8	15.3	0.49
Jon Leuer	49	49	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	9	-7	16.2	16.1	0.17	15.5	15.5	0.06
Stanley Johnson	26	25	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.24	-10	21	-31	18.3	15.3	3.05	15.2	15.6	-0.39

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jusuf Nurkic	33	32	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-14	17	15.9	15.2	0.67	15.7	16.4	-0.78
Juan Hernangomez	36	34	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.25	8	-19	27	15.4	15.5	-0.06	18.3	14.9	3.40
Gary Harris	54	54	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-12	13	15.6	15.4	0.22	15.6	17.0	-1.41
Nikola Jokic	40	41	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	-5	-1	14.7	16.1	-1.31	16.1	16.2	-0.17
Jameer Nelson	38	40	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.25	0	-11	11	15.7	15.3	0.43	17.6	15.0	2.65
Emmanuel Mudiay	53	51	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.07	-11	0	-11	15.3	15.7	-0.43	15.0	17.6	-2.65
Jamal Murray	37	37	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	1	-13	15.4	15.6	-0.22	17.0	15.6	1.41
Wilson Chandler	57	58	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.12	-9	-2	-7	15.3	15.8	-0.54	16.3	15.9	0.40
Kenneth Faried	39	39	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.01	-14	3	-17	15.9	15.2	0.72	15.4	16.7	-1.32
Danilo Gallinari	68	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.08	-15	4	-19	15.7	15.0	0.71	15.7	17.6	-1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.28,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.28,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.2,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 104, ORL 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.4,0.31,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.11,0.04,0.06,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.21,0.03,0,0	94.3%
MIA 90, SAS 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.19,0.13,0.21,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	94.0%
NJN 104, MIL 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.08,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.1,0.21,0.06,0.01,0	94.0%