NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	98		Excitement	9.4 [110]		MVP	Mike Conley (MEM): +30.3%
Memphis Grizzlies	102		Comeback	4.2 [338]		LVP	Andrew Harrison (MEM): -13.0%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gorgui Dieng	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	10	55%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Zach LaVine	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,-0.04,0.01	0.04	-0.06	-0.04	14	58%	0.06	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.03
Cole Aldrich	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Dunn	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.04	0.00	6	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nemanja Bjelica	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shabazz Muhammad	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karl-Anthony Towns	-0.08	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.01,-0.08	0.01	-0.07	0.02	20	51%	0.01	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	5	27%	-0.03	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.05
Brandon Rush	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	-0.12	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.01,-0.12,-0.12	0.07	-0.19	0.00	14	60%	-0.03	2	-0.09	14	71%	-0.20

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.22,0.22,0.3	0.30	0.15	0.14	-0.02	14	73%	0.36	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.03
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.03	0.10	-0.00	10	55%	0.18	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.01	12	63%	0.15	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
James Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	8	75%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Deyonta Davis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marc Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.28,-0.17,-0.17,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	17	47%	0.13	4	-0.17	4	75%	-0.01
Wade Baldwin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.08	-0.01	8	44%	-0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Harrison	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.04	7	22%	-0.08	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	1.6	32.2	16.4	27.6	2.3	42.5	149.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +70.0%

MEM +12.6%

MIN -21.3%

MIN -5.0%

MIN -6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MEM	NBA	MIN	MEM	NBA
this game	15.3	15.9	14.8	107.7	108.5	107.7
season	15.3	16.1		109.3	106.4
opponent	14.9	14.7		106.7	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.5	14.6	16.5	16.6	15.3
MEM	17.1	16.0	15.6	14.7	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nemanja Bjelica	29	31	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.18	0	-4	4	15.4	15.2	0.25	15.6	16.0	-0.40
Brandon Rush	25	25	0.18	-0.68	0.85	0.09	3	-7	10	16.6	14.8	1.88	15.1	16.1	-1.00
Cole Aldrich	18	20	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.06	5	-9	14	15.2	15.3	-0.07	15.7	15.9	-0.13
Shabazz Muhammad	27	27	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.05	1	-5	6	14.2	15.7	-1.55	15.8	15.9	-0.05
Kris Dunn	30	32	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.14	-6	2	-8	14.9	15.4	-0.51	14.8	16.4	-1.62
Gorgui Dieng	65	66	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.43	0	-4	4	15.3	15.3	0.01	16.0	15.5	0.55
Ricky Rubio	63	64	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	-3	2	15.2	15.5	-0.38	16.2	15.2	1.01
Andrew Wiggins	64	67	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.43	-5	1	-6	15.7	14.2	1.55	15.9	15.8	0.05
Zach LaVine	64	68	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.51	-4	0	-4	15.0	15.9	-0.87	16.2	14.9	1.34
Karl-Anthony Towns	70	70	-0.86	0.36	-1.22	-0.48	-13	9	-22	15.2	15.5	-0.26	15.9	15.6	0.36

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Gasol	62	61	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.58	4	0	4	16.1	15.4	0.72	15.4	14.9	0.51
Vince Carter	55	54	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.38	10	-6	16	15.1	16.9	-1.74	15.8	14.5	1.24
Andrew Harrison	74	71	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.42	8	-4	12	16.2	14.7	1.46	15.4	14.8	0.61
JaMychal Green	57	53	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.47	4	0	4	16.1	15.5	0.56	15.0	15.7	-0.70
Mike Conley	61	58	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.54	-3	7	-10	15.4	16.6	-1.16	14.7	16.2	-1.47
Deyonta Davis	12	12	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.09	7	-3	10	14.7	16.0	-1.36	13.5	15.5	-2.04
Wade Baldwin	45	47	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.22	3	1	2	16.1	15.6	0.50	15.4	15.1	0.31
Zach Randolph	48	47	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.13	-1	5	-6	15.9	15.8	0.18	15.5	15.0	0.49
James Ennis	56	52	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	-0.04	-12	16	-28	16.1	15.5	0.55	15.3	15.2	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.21,0.37,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.22,0.55,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 86, WAS 90	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.41,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.63,0.57,0.73,1	89.7%
POR 97, ATL 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.27,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.47,0.55,0.37,0.43,0.85,1	89.6%
SAS 80, MEM 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.45,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.61,0.55,0.41,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.96,1	89.6%