NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	88		Excitement	4.4 [944]		MVP	Avery Bradley (BOS): +14.8%
Boston Celtics	98		Comeback	49.5 [52]		LVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): -11.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.05	0.01	10	66%	0.14	1	-0.00	9	78%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	16	56%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	5	70%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	9	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	16	49%	0.00	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Josh McRoberts	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	19	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	6	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.00	12	71%	0.16	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.09	-0.01	13	55%	0.15	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.10	0.01	9	52%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.04	-0.04	4	40%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	13	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	0.03	2	67%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	0.07	15	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	12	92%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	10	30%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.4	28.6	16.5	29.0	0.1	34.3	136.0
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +27.5%

BOS +11.0%

BOS +3.8%

BOS +9.6%

MIA -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	18.6	13.6	14.9	97.8	110.1	105.1
season	15.5	13.9		104.5	104.5
opponent	15.0	15.1		101.9	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.5	20.7	21.0	16.6	18.6
BOS	14.1	13.6	11.7	14.7	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Green	9	10	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.08	-1	-9	8	17.8	18.7	-0.91	12.5	13.7	-1.18
Josh McRoberts	27	29	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-12	14	18.9	18.5	0.36	14.0	13.3	0.72
Joe Johnson	69	68	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-8	6	18.3	19.5	-1.20	13.6	13.5	0.10
Luol Deng	68	67	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	-5	0	18.4	19.2	-0.83	13.3	14.3	-1.02
Hassan Whiteside	56	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	0	-10	18.6	18.6	0.07	12.7	14.9	-2.20
Justise Winslow	48	49	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.29	-3	-7	4	19.8	17.3	2.51	14.7	12.1	2.63
Goran Dragic	61	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	-4	-2	18.9	18.0	0.94	13.2	14.3	-1.13
Josh Richardson	49	49	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	-6	2	18.8	18.4	0.43	14.4	12.5	1.86
Dwyane Wade	63	60	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	0.08	-21	11	-32	17.8	20.5	-2.74	13.2	14.2	-0.92

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Olynyk	33	35	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.18	14	-4	18	15.1	12.6	2.50	16.7	19.8	-3.18
Jonas Jerebko	29	28	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.19	9	1	8	15.3	12.7	2.61	18.2	18.8	-0.51
Evan Turner	55	55	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.29	3	7	-4	13.9	13.0	0.94	17.6	20.2	-2.57
Jae Crowder	66	65	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.12	8	2	6	13.7	13.3	0.39	19.6	16.0	3.54
Amir Johnson	40	42	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.15	15	-5	20	11.7	15.1	-3.41	20.5	16.9	3.56
Marcus Smart	44	46	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.34	-2	12	-14	14.2	13.0	1.20	17.0	20.3	-3.36
Avery Bradley	58	58	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.10	2	8	-6	13.4	13.9	-0.54	18.0	19.7	-1.78
Isaiah Thomas	63	66	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	5	0	12.7	15.7	-3.03	19.2	17.0	2.24
Jared Sullinger	41	41	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.10	4	6	-2	13.0	14.0	-0.93	20.8	16.8	4.05
Tyler Zeller	16	14	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.09	-8	18	-26	13.9	13.5	0.47	16.6	19.0	-2.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.37,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.14,0.18,0.25,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.47,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 93, UTA 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.23,0.11,0.09,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.16,0.18,0.26,0.27,0.37,0.44,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.71,0.73,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.97,1,1,1	91.5%
NJN 86, VAN 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.22,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.22,0.34,0.48,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.88,0.87,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	91.5%
SAS 99, OKC 107	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.27,0.33,0.21,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.95,1	91.3%