NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	102		Excitement	6.6 [508]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +33.6%
Chicago Bulls	105		Comeback	5.1 [401]		LVP	Matthew Dellavedova (CLE): -16.8%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.34	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.34	0.21	0.13	0.00	17	87%	0.40	4	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.12	0.16	0.02	0.06	16	69%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.06
Timofey Mozgov	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Channing Frye	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	3	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Kevin Love	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09	0.01	-0.06	0.04	17	51%	-0.03	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.15	-0.07	-0.06	17	32%	-0.05	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17	-0.06	-0.09	0.02	6	25%	-0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cristiano Felicio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.05	0.01	7	100%	0.20	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	-0.01	6	75%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.01	11	59%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.02	17	54%	0.13	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	4	60%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.03	-0.02	6	41%	0.06	0	0.00	5	100%	0.05
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	7	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	14	36%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	10	29%	-0.04	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	0.05	7	58%	0.01	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	3.4	28.5	15.8	27.0	2.8	40.1	140.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +19.1%

CHI +17.3%

CHI +3.2%

CHI +9.5%

CHI +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	CHI	NBA	CLE	CHI	NBA
this game	15.4	16.0	14.9	110.9	115.4	105.1
season	15.8	14.8		110.3	103.7
opponent	14.9	14.9		105.1	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	13.3	14.0	17.9	17.0	15.4
CHI	16.1	17.3	14.2	16.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	69	66	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.26	11	-14	25	15.5	15.3	0.13	16.1	15.8	0.32
J.R. Smith	71	71	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.28	8	-11	19	14.9	17.1	-2.20	15.8	16.9	-1.11
Tristan Thompson	58	59	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.14	3	-6	9	16.1	14.3	1.83	15.7	16.7	-1.01
LeBron James	74	74	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.27	7	-10	17	14.9	17.8	-2.90	15.8	16.9	-1.12
Kyrie Irving	73	72	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.35	4	-7	11	15.8	14.1	1.76	16.8	13.1	3.70
Timofey Mozgov	15	15	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.05	-11	8	-19	16.9	15.2	1.70	15.9	16.1	-0.20
Channing Frye	29	30	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.10	-14	11	-25	15.0	15.7	-0.65	15.0	16.5	-1.54
Richard Jefferson	19	18	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.17	-13	10	-23	16.9	15.1	1.89	17.2	15.7	1.48
Matthew Dellavedova	52	50	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.43	-10	7	-17	14.9	16.1	-1.20	16.1	15.9	0.19

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cristiano Felicio	45	44	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.45	12	-9	21	15.9	16.2	-0.33	15.7	15.2	0.58
Aaron Brooks	29	30	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.12	23	-20	43	15.1	16.5	-1.41	18.0	14.2	3.84
Justin Holiday	40	42	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.43	12	-9	21	16.4	15.7	0.65	16.7	14.4	2.33
Bobby Portis	54	53	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.28	17	-14	31	16.2	15.8	0.42	16.4	14.1	2.29
Doug McDermott	21	22	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.20	11	-8	19	17.1	15.7	1.44	15.3	15.5	-0.23
Jimmy Butler	74	73	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.27	-7	10	-17	15.8	16.9	-1.12	15.1	16.8	-1.76
Pau Gasol	47	48	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.00	-9	12	-21	15.9	16.2	-0.33	15.2	15.7	-0.58
Derrick Rose	62	62	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	0.29	-20	23	-43	16.5	15.1	1.41	14.2	18.0	-3.84
Nikola Mirotic	33	35	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.03	-10	13	-23	15.9	16.1	-0.24	14.6	16.0	-1.41
Mike Dunleavy	50	51	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	0.03	-14	17	-31	15.8	16.3	-0.52	14.6	16.5	-1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.33,0.27,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.21,0.23,0.29,0.4,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 87, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.29,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.57,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.97,1,1	93.2%
IND 102, POR 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.34,0.4,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.36,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.98,1	93.0%
BOS 95, LAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.89,0.78,0.96,0.97,1,1,1	92.6%