NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	97		Excitement	5.9 [636]		MVP	Jose Juan Barea (DAL): +16.6%
Denver Nuggets	88		Comeback	1.6 [531]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -15.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Juan Barea	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.08	-0.00	13	64%	0.18	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Dwight Powell	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.08	0.00	13	62%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Anderson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.00	8	69%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	14	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	8	55%	0.03	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.00
David Lee	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	5	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Devin Harris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.05	-0.00	10	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.00	-0.06	17	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	-0.01	9	68%	0.17	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.15	-0.00	0.06	14	72%	0.12	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Joffrey Lauvergne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	7	57%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Axel Toupane	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	7	64%	0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaKarr Sampson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.03
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	0.03	11	57%	0.04	4	-0.11	6	83%	-0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.03	-0.02	7	14%	-0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	26.3	14.8	24.2	1.8	32.3	127.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +15.5%

DEN -6.7%

DEN -10.4%

DAL +53.6%

DEN -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	17.1	14.9	14.9	107.8	97.8	105.1
season	15.5	14.9		105.0	104.3
opponent	14.9	14.7		107.8	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.7	17.7	16.5	18.8	17.1
DEN	14.3	16.6	14.0	14.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Juan Barea	49	50	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.08	18	-9	27	16.2	18.2	-2.08	15.4	14.2	1.15
Zaza Pachulia	54	54	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.05	15	-6	21	16.8	17.5	-0.69	15.5	14.0	1.44
Devin Harris	52	50	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.01	14	-5	19	16.8	17.5	-0.72	15.9	13.6	2.32
Wesley Matthews	63	63	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.27	3	6	-3	18.1	14.9	3.17	14.3	16.2	-1.90
Dwight Powell	56	56	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.35	-1	10	-11	17.9	15.9	1.97	14.1	16.3	-2.21
Dirk Nowitzki	63	63	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.08	5	4	1	16.3	19.1	-2.86	15.2	14.1	1.16
Justin Anderson	48	48	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.06	1	8	-7	15.8	18.6	-2.87	15.1	14.7	0.42
Raymond Felton	59	60	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.29	-9	18	-27	18.4	14.7	3.61	13.8	17.0	-3.17
David Lee	6	6	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.00	-1	10	-11	20.5	16.9	3.63	16.0	14.8	1.19

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	45	45	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.22	10	-19	29	13.8	16.0	-2.18	18.8	15.4	3.42
JaKarr Sampson	36	35	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.06	3	-12	15	14.1	15.4	-1.30	16.8	17.3	-0.56
Gary Harris	56	55	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.24	7	-16	23	14.2	16.1	-1.93	18.3	15.2	3.08
Jameer Nelson	13	14	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-5	1	16.9	14.5	2.38	16.5	17.2	-0.72
Darrell Arthur	48	47	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.14	0	-9	9	13.9	16.0	-2.17	17.6	16.6	1.06
Emmanuel Mudiay	68	68	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.22	2	-11	13	13.3	19.8	-6.46	17.7	15.1	2.61
Axel Toupane	13	13	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	-3	-3	17.6	14.4	3.19	13.8	17.7	-3.91
Kenneth Faried	42	43	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.09	-9	0	-9	16.0	13.9	2.17	16.6	17.6	-1.06
D.J. Augustin	30	30	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.03	-17	8	-25	17.8	13.4	4.32	15.2	18.1	-2.87
Will Barton	58	58	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.13	-14	5	-19	15.2	14.2	0.99	16.9	17.5	-0.65
Joffrey Lauvergne	41	42	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.06	-17	8	-25	16.3	13.7	2.53	15.9	18.2	-2.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.26,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 116, DET 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.12,0.06,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%
NYK 93, WAS 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.13,0.15,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0	93.5%
MIL 104, ORL 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.22,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.13,0.1,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.3%