NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	89		Excitement	3.1 [1188]		MVP	Taj Gibson (CHI): +10.8%
Orlando Magic	111		Comeback	1.0 [455]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -13.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Taj Gibson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.00	0.01	9	89%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	10	60%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cristiano Felicio	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	6	29%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Nikola Mirotic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.06	7	25%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	7	59%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Bobby Portis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	8	22%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	6	50%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.16	-0.00	-0.03	14	30%	-0.06	4	-0.07	2	0%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	14	64%	0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.00	9	79%	0.12	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.04	12	58%	0.06	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devyn Marble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	62%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	9	57%	0.05	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	13	45%	0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	5	70%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	4	37%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.3	27.0	14.6	22.9	2.0	26.0	118.3
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +37.9%

ORL +4.4%

ORL +2.8%

ORL +4.7%

ORL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ORL	NBA	CHI	ORL	NBA
this game	15.6	14.9	14.9	93.7	118.1	105.1
season	14.8	14.6		103.7	103.6
opponent	14.9	14.9		105.2	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.3	13.0	21.2	13.1	15.6
ORL	13.7	15.3	14.8	15.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Snell	13	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-24	26	10.4	16.4	-6.02	16.2	14.7	1.55
Cristiano Felicio	19	19	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-27	32	12.0	16.5	-4.47	16.9	14.4	2.51
Aaron Brooks	39	38	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.15	-10	-12	2	13.3	17.2	-3.94	15.2	14.7	0.44
Pau Gasol	41	41	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-19	16	18.1	13.7	4.43	14.6	15.2	-0.59
Doug McDermott	41	41	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.15	-13	-9	-4	14.4	16.5	-2.13	15.9	14.1	1.79
Jimmy Butler	57	56	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-15	8	17.2	13.1	4.17	14.7	15.2	-0.58
Bobby Portis	41	40	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.23	-16	-6	-10	12.5	17.9	-5.44	14.8	14.9	-0.12
Taj Gibson	48	48	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.01	-9	-13	4	18.2	12.9	5.36	14.5	15.3	-0.76
Justin Holiday	38	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.18	-15	-7	-8	13.1	17.2	-4.17	15.2	14.7	0.58
Mike Dunleavy	43	41	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.02	-10	-12	2	18.0	13.6	4.34	13.7	15.8	-2.19
Nikola Mirotic	41	40	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.27	-21	-1	-20	14.7	16.2	-1.53	14.8	15.0	-0.16
Derrick Rose	54	55	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.02	-13	-9	-4	17.5	13.0	4.54	14.6	15.4	-0.80

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elfrid Payton	56	55	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.07	16	6	10	14.5	15.5	-1.06	17.5	12.9	4.67
CJ Watson	57	59	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.19	19	3	16	15.2	14.4	0.85	13.1	19.7	-6.58
Jason Smith	48	49	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.23	20	2	18	15.0	14.8	0.26	14.3	17.0	-2.71
Aaron Gordon	50	50	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.09	14	8	6	14.3	15.6	-1.31	18.1	12.7	5.41
Devyn Marble	47	46	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.14	14	8	6	15.4	14.4	0.94	12.6	18.3	-5.72
Evan Fournier	47	49	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.01	8	14	-6	14.4	15.4	-0.94	18.3	12.6	5.72
Andrew Nicholson	44	45	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.05	8	14	-6	15.6	14.3	1.31	12.7	18.1	-5.41
Mario Hezonja	41	40	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.04	4	18	-14	14.2	15.5	-1.28	18.7	13.3	5.39
Dewayne Dedmon	42	42	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.09	1	21	-20	15.0	14.8	0.19	17.6	13.9	3.70
Brandon Jennings	27	28	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.10	7	15	-8	15.1	14.8	0.31	13.9	16.3	-2.39
Shabazz Napier	11	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	23	-24	16.5	14.7	1.87	10.5	16.3	-5.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.88,0.79,0.9,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 86, WAS 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
DAL 84, UTA 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
MEM 66, IND 80	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.1%