NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	88		Excitement	3.3 [1161]		MVP	Kawhi Leonard (SAS): +20.3%
San Antonio Spurs	112		Comeback	1.1 [1242]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -9.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	9	55%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	50%	0.01
Justise Winslow	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.02	7	53%	0.04	0	0.00	5	60%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	-0.01	-0.03	13	59%	0.07	3	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Josh Richardson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.11	-0.00	0.11	13	65%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.08	-0.00	0.09	9	65%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joe Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0.03	6	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.02	7	64%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.18	-0.00	-0.09	8	25%	-0.04	6	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.20	0.02	0.02	21	65%	0.22	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	73%	0.05	1	-0.00	3	67%	0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	0.00	0.05	5	86%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.03	6	75%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.06	5	20%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	42%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boban Marjanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.15	0.00	0.15	12	76%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	9	44%	-0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	2.5	29.4	15.4	27.2	1.8	26.2	124.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +28.5%

SAS +12.7%

SAS +2.7%

SAS +10.0%

MIA -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	15.8	15.9	14.9	97.8	121.7	105.1
season	15.5	15.7		104.5	109.0
opponent	14.7	15.1		97.9	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.7	17.1	12.7	15.9	15.8
SAS	14.4	14.2	16.1	19.1	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Green	28	29	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.12	5	-29	34	15.0	16.1	-1.04	16.7	15.5	1.17
Justise Winslow	37	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.16	-11	-13	2	16.3	15.4	0.97	14.4	16.9	-2.46
Josh Richardson	63	64	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.15	-13	-11	-2	16.4	14.3	2.08	16.1	15.3	0.82
Hassan Whiteside	63	64	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.15	-13	-11	-2	16.4	14.3	2.08	16.1	15.3	0.82
Amar'e Stoudemire	27	28	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.06	-11	-13	2	14.3	16.4	-2.08	15.3	16.1	-0.82
Goran Dragic	48	50	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.25	-19	-5	-14	14.8	16.8	-1.98	14.8	17.2	-2.35
Josh McRoberts	55	55	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.06	-15	-9	-6	15.1	16.8	-1.76	16.9	14.3	2.62
Joe Johnson	61	63	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.16	-21	-3	-18	16.3	14.6	1.78	15.4	16.9	-1.42
Dwyane Wade	48	48	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.19	-23	-1	-22	15.8	15.7	0.17	15.3	16.5	-1.25

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	47	47	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.18	24	0	24	15.6	16.2	-0.60	15.9	15.6	0.24
Kawhi Leonard	46	47	0.45	0.06	0.39	-0.02	16	8	8	15.6	16.2	-0.57	15.9	15.7	0.20
Tony Parker	46	46	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.17	19	5	14	15.5	16.3	-0.83	15.5	16.1	-0.61
Danny Green	44	43	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.17	18	6	12	15.5	16.3	-0.84	15.0	16.5	-1.54
LaMarcus Aldridge	49	48	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.24	20	4	16	16.0	15.8	0.19	15.1	16.5	-1.44
Kevin Martin	29	28	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.07	5	19	-14	16.4	15.7	0.76	16.1	15.6	0.56
Boris Diaw	40	40	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.19	11	13	-2	14.6	16.8	-2.20	16.5	15.1	1.38
Patty Mills	31	29	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.09	7	17	-10	14.8	16.4	-1.64	16.4	15.4	1.02
Manu Ginobili	29	27	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.29	11	13	-2	14.3	16.6	-2.31	16.3	15.5	0.77
Boban Marjanovic	25	24	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.09	-3	27	-30	18.5	14.9	3.55	14.5	16.2	-1.66
Andre Miller	15	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	26	-28	19.4	15.2	4.19	15.3	15.8	-0.51
Kyle Anderson	38	37	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	25	-26	17.6	14.7	2.83	16.4	15.3	1.06
David West	21	19	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.11	-5	29	-34	15.6	16.0	-0.35	16.1	15.7	0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 91, NOH 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.77,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
HOU 99, MIA 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
SAC 66, POR 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%