NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	4.0 [1046]		MVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): +16.3%
New Orleans Pelicans	99		Comeback	1.2 [1210]		LVP	Toney Douglas (NOP): -8.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.05	0.03	11	86%	0.21	4	-0.05	6	67%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	-0.00	21	52%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	6	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.11	0.00	0.06	8	80%	0.06	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Joe Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	7	40%	0.02	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.00
Goran Dragic	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	18	55%	0.06	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	8	37%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Gee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.10	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.03	19	57%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	4	36%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	6	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tim Frazier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	0.05	10	46%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Jrue Holiday	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	0.06	23	45%	-0.06	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.03
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	16	37%	-0.07	2	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.5	27.4	15.6	27.4	1.8	30.2	131.3
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +47.4%

NOP -4.2%

MIA +6.9%

MIA +2.4%

NOP -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NOP	NBA	MIA	NOP	NBA
this game	14.4	14.4	14.9	111.9	100.0	105.1
season	15.5	14.3		104.5	104.3
opponent	15.0	15.1		107.9	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.3	12.4	15.0	18.4	14.4
NOP	17.0	13.9	12.6	14.3	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	73	69	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.02	18	-4	22	14.5	14.0	0.56	14.4	14.5	-0.05
Hassan Whiteside	64	63	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	2	10	14.7	13.7	1.00	14.2	14.9	-0.76
Goran Dragic	79	76	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.01	14	0	14	14.1	15.3	-1.16	14.3	14.9	-0.57
Josh Richardson	50	52	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.06	11	3	8	14.0	14.7	-0.73	14.4	14.4	0.02
Justise Winslow	63	63	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.02	11	3	8	14.3	14.4	-0.13	14.7	13.9	0.86
Dwyane Wade	65	64	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.02	11	3	8	14.6	14.0	0.61	14.4	14.5	-0.12
Amar'e Stoudemire	33	31	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	11	-8	13.5	14.8	-1.31	15.1	14.1	0.92
Luol Deng	62	61	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.26	-7	21	-28	14.8	13.7	1.01	14.3	14.7	-0.41
Gerald Green	12	11	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.07	-2	16	-18	13.7	14.5	-0.79	14.7	14.4	0.33
Josh McRoberts	4	5	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	15	-16	15.7	14.3	1.44	14.0	14.5	-0.46

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omer Asik	44	46	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-12	10	14.5	14.4	0.16	13.4	15.2	-1.75
Alexis Ajinca	24	25	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	-8	2	14.3	14.5	-0.13	13.5	14.7	-1.18
Toney Douglas	66	69	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	-10	6	14.4	14.5	-0.03	13.4	16.4	-2.94
Kendrick Perkins	47	46	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-10	6	14.5	14.4	0.15	16.0	13.0	3.04
Alonzo Gee	51	53	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.24	-1	-13	12	13.7	15.2	-1.46	15.4	13.2	2.21
Luke Babbitt	74	77	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.07	-12	-2	-10	14.4	14.5	-0.06	13.5	17.0	-3.45
Tim Frazier	57	57	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	-7	0	14.1	14.9	-0.73	15.5	12.9	2.58
Dante Cunningham	57	56	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.07	-17	3	-20	15.0	13.7	1.33	14.3	14.4	-0.10
Jrue Holiday	75	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.06	-17	3	-20	14.7	13.7	1.01	14.4	14.4	0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.19,0.13,0.05,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 98, DET 88	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0	95.3%
WAS 113, NYK 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0	95.2%
MIA 91, BOS 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0	95.2%