NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	109		Excitement	4.9 [841]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +23.6%
Detroit Pistons	99		Comeback	2.0 [897]		LVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): -17.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.16	0.05	-0.03	19	72%	0.28	3	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.04	12	54%	0.08	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	8	67%	0.10	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	19	55%	0.10	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Danny Green	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	60%	0.07	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Kyle Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boban Marjanovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	7	14%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	7	33%	-0.06	3	-0.06	7	71%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.18	0.02	0.05	14	78%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Andre Drummond	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	13	53%	0.06	1	-0.01	6	17%	-0.07
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	6	60%	0.05	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	9	47%	0.02	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	13	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	9	33%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	7	12%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.16	-0.03	-0.02	13	33%	-0.06	5	-0.12	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	0.8	30.2	26.8	23.0	1.8	41.2	148.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +30.7%

SAS +15.4%

SAS +6.8%

DET -5.2%

SAS +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	14.1	13.8	14.9	104.8	96.1	105.1
season	15.7	15.0		109.0	104.9
opponent	15.1	14.7		105.0	97.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	12.6	13.0	14.4	16.4	14.1
DET	13.6	14.7	14.4	12.4	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kawhi Leonard	76	74	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	-1	12	14.4	13.0	1.45	13.3	15.0	-1.72
LaMarcus Aldridge	76	74	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.23	5	5	0	14.9	11.9	2.96	13.9	13.6	0.30
Tony Parker	68	69	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.17	7	3	4	14.4	13.5	0.85	13.6	14.1	-0.48
Tim Duncan	64	64	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.16	6	4	2	14.6	13.2	1.39	13.5	14.3	-0.79
Manu Ginobili	55	56	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.04	8	2	6	13.8	14.3	-0.55	14.3	13.1	1.22
Danny Green	61	59	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.17	2	8	-6	14.3	13.7	0.61	13.1	14.7	-1.68
Boris Diaw	56	56	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.15	2	8	-6	13.7	14.5	-0.74	14.1	13.3	0.82
Patty Mills	36	34	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	7	-4	13.5	14.4	-0.85	14.1	13.6	0.48
Boban Marjanovic	9	9	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.05	5	5	0	8.0	14.6	-6.63	15.1	13.6	1.47
Jonathon Simmons	14	15	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	7	-4	10.6	14.6	-4.03	15.1	13.5	1.52
Kyle Anderson	5	5	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	12	-14	13.4	14.1	-0.69	15.2	13.7	1.51

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	2	3	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-8	6	20.5	13.6	6.87	11.7	14.1	-2.46
Anthony Tolliver	47	47	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.23	5	-15	20	13.9	13.7	0.15	15.0	13.3	1.64
Brandon Jennings	40	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.01	-6	-4	-2	14.0	13.6	0.38	12.9	14.8	-1.90
Andre Drummond	57	58	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-9	8	13.6	13.9	-0.26	15.6	12.1	3.46
Stanley Johnson	49	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.20	-1	-9	8	14.5	13.1	1.42	14.6	13.6	1.09
Aron Baynes	44	43	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.07	-6	-4	-2	13.6	13.9	-0.27	12.2	15.4	-3.23
Reggie Jackson	64	67	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-4	-2	13.5	14.2	-0.75	14.4	13.4	1.05
Marcus Morris	62	63	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	2	-14	13.7	13.9	-0.18	14.1	13.9	0.22
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	94	95	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.23	-6	-4	-2	13.5	16.3	-2.81	13.9	15.4	-1.52
Ersan Ilyasova	56	57	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.03	-15	5	-20	13.7	13.9	-0.15	13.3	15.0	-1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.06,0.1,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 120, SAC 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.68,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
TOR 103, BOS 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.16,0.3,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.14,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
NJN 94, TOR 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.2,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%