NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	92		Excitement	6.4 [554]		MVP	Amir Johnson (BOS): +8.5%
Chicago Bulls	101		Comeback	3.1 [649]		LVP	Isaiah Thomas (BOS): -19.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amir Johnson	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	8	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	13	43%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Marcus Smart	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	11	42%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Young	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.04	0.04	14	53%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Jerebko	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	17	41%	-0.11	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.05
Tyler Zeller	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.01	12	38%	-0.07	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.15	-0.06	-0.01	17	36%	-0.08	4	-0.12	5	80%	0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	8	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	3	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	6	71%	0.09	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	16	56%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	10	46%	0.01	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	9	56%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.03	14	51%	0.05	3	-0.08	9	89%	0.01
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	19	42%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	9	22%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.4	2.7	29.1	17.5	24.3	2.7	34.2	131.0
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +54.5%

CHI +2.6%

CHI +7.6%

BOS -8.8%

BOS -5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CHI	NBA	BOS	CHI	NBA
this game	13.3	14.7	14.9	88.5	99.0	105.1
season	13.9	14.8		104.5	103.7
opponent	14.9	15.0		105.1	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.3	13.2	13.6	12.2	13.3
CHI	15.1	14.0	14.1	15.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Sullinger	57	56	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.24	11	-20	31	12.0	14.9	-2.88	15.2	13.9	1.32
Tyler Zeller	20	20	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-9	9	13.2	13.3	-0.08	14.7	14.6	0.12
Jonas Jerebko	17	13	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-12	15	14.9	13.0	1.87	17.5	14.2	3.30
Marcus Smart	63	62	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.23	7	-16	23	12.7	14.2	-1.45	15.5	13.3	2.23
James Young	10	11	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-7	5	10.9	13.6	-2.67	13.7	14.8	-1.04
Amir Johnson	47	46	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.04	-13	4	-17	14.7	12.2	2.49	13.7	15.4	-1.67
Jae Crowder	83	84	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.23	-7	-2	-5	13.3	13.4	-0.08	14.6	15.1	-0.48
Evan Turner	81	77	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.18	-11	2	-13	13.8	11.6	2.19	14.4	15.5	-1.09
Isaiah Thomas	72	74	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.10	-14	5	-19	12.7	14.7	-1.98	14.4	15.2	-0.82
Kelly Olynyk	70	67	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.07	-19	10	-29	14.0	11.8	2.22	14.2	15.5	-1.31

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Mirotic	60	59	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.01	22	-13	35	13.7	16.0	-2.24	13.6	13.0	0.64
Pau Gasol	74	77	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.12	14	-5	19	14.1	16.0	-1.90	13.3	13.3	0.03
Jimmy Butler	81	84	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.16	12	-3	15	14.6	15.0	-0.43	13.2	14.0	-0.85
Derrick Rose	73	73	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.20	6	3	3	14.5	14.9	-0.38	13.4	13.2	0.13
Doug McDermott	44	43	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	4	1	14.3	14.9	-0.60	13.5	13.2	0.33
Taj Gibson	58	58	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.15	1	8	-7	15.0	14.2	0.80	14.2	12.2	1.93
Kirk Hinrich	29	31	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.04	3	6	-3	14.9	14.5	0.38	13.2	13.4	-0.13
Tony Snell	43	45	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.20	-7	16	-23	15.3	14.2	1.20	12.6	13.8	-1.19
Bobby Portis	48	50	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.25	-11	20	-31	16.0	13.4	2.62	12.7	13.9	-1.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 92, NYK 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.67,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.74,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.97,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%
PHI 96, IND 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.78,0.72,0.77,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.95,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.98,1,1,1	94.0%
ORL 93, CHI 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.51,0.58,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.89,0.99,0.99,1	93.9%