NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	108		Excitement	6.0 [615]		MVP	Gerald Green (MIA): +23.2%
Miami Heat	94		Comeback	4.0 [173]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -13.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.15	0.04	-0.00	9	94%	0.22	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.09	0.10	0.01	17	64%	0.26	3	-0.09	13	77%	0.00
James Johnson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.08	-0.02	9	65%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Luis Scola	0.12	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.05	0.03	16	61%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.05	0.02	18	52%	0.12	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Patrick Patterson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	5	42%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Cory Joseph	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.11	0.10	-0.02	15	65%	0.28	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	8	61%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	62%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.02	13	62%	0.07	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.02
Josh Richardson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	9	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	16	57%	0.09	8	-0.22	5	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.5	28.2	14.8	23.9	0.8	29.6	124.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +21.3%

TOR +2.9%

TOR +8.7%

TOR +16.3%

TOR +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	15.9	14.9	121.3	105.6	105.1
season	16.1	15.5		107.2	104.5
opponent	15.1	14.8		103.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.0	15.6	17.0	17.5	16.5
MIA	14.7	16.5	17.2	15.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	72	71	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.09	17	-3	20	15.9	19.1	-3.23	15.9	15.8	0.03
Patrick Patterson	44	44	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.01	18	-4	22	17.2	15.8	1.43	15.5	16.2	-0.61
James Johnson	61	61	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.15	12	2	10	16.6	16.3	0.32	15.2	17.3	-2.09
DeMar DeRozan	73	73	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	3	8	16.6	16.1	0.54	15.6	17.1	-1.55
Bismack Biyombo	61	60	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.02	11	3	8	17.0	15.4	1.68	16.5	14.6	1.93
Terrence Ross	49	49	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	11	-8	15.8	17.4	-1.67	15.5	16.3	-0.86
Cory Joseph	37	37	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	13	-12	16.5	16.5	0.01	15.9	15.8	0.11
Luis Scola	48	50	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.10	-3	17	-20	16.6	16.4	0.17	16.9	14.5	2.39

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	6	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-12	10	18.0	15.7	2.30	16.3	16.5	-0.24
Udonis Haslem	11	11	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-11	8	18.0	15.6	2.45	15.5	16.6	-1.10
Beno Udrih	39	39	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.14	1	-15	16	16.9	15.1	1.81	16.7	16.3	0.42
Hassan Whiteside	57	56	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.15	0	-14	14	16.3	15.1	1.19	16.6	16.4	0.18
Dwyane Wade	59	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-8	2	15.7	16.2	-0.57	16.2	17.1	-0.90
Gerald Green	57	58	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.06	-8	-6	-2	15.6	16.2	-0.62	16.8	16.0	0.78
Justise Winslow	36	34	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.16	-6	-8	2	14.9	16.5	-1.53	16.9	16.2	0.70
Luol Deng	63	64	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	-3	-8	14.9	18.2	-3.30	16.8	15.6	1.20
Goran Dragic	63	62	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.05	-16	2	-18	15.6	16.5	-0.97	16.3	16.9	-0.55
Chris Bosh	54	55	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.13	-19	5	-24	16.5	14.9	1.64	16.1	17.2	-1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.4,0.17,0.11,0.04,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 108, WAS 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.01,0	92.5%
LAL 124, GSW 121	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.52,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.41,0.29,0.32,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.13,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.17,0.1,0.01,0,0,0	92.4%
NYK 111, BOS 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.3,0.41,0.47,0.13,0.06,0.11,0.01,0,0	92.3%