NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	116		Excitement	6.3 [564]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (DAL): +44.3%
Washington Wizards	104		Comeback	3.1 [460]		LVP	Raymond Felton (DAL): -10.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0.44	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.3,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44	0.27	0.20	0.02	23	75%	0.46	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.07	0.01	8	73%	0.20	1	-0.03	10	80%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	4	91%	0.14	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
John Jenkins	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	3	83%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Evans	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.02	0.04	3	117%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	78%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Justin Anderson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	59%	0.05	4	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Deron Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	12	37%	-0.05	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Raymond Felton	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.03	13	42%	0.03	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Wall	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.05	-0.01	22	58%	0.23	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	0.01	0.05	14	62%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.01	3	78%	0.05	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Kelly Oubre	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	0.04	4	64%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.06
Otto Porter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	17	44%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	19	48%	0.04	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.02
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.8	30.3	15.6	26.0	2.0	28.0	131.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +45.1%

DAL +25.2%

DAL +10.7%

WAS -23.7%

WAS -7.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	WAS	NBA	DAL	WAS	NBA
this game	16.2	13.3	14.9	118.4	107.2	105.1
season	15.5	13.8		105.0	104.1
opponent	15.1	14.7		104.6	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.8	14.7	17.5	21.7	16.2
WAS	12.5	11.9	14.6	15.1	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Matthews	82	81	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.04	21	-9	30	16.3	15.9	0.38	13.8	11.0	2.79
Raymond Felton	78	74	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.23	8	4	4	16.7	14.0	2.69	13.2	13.8	-0.59
Dirk Nowitzki	58	58	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.15	9	3	6	16.7	15.4	1.34	13.6	12.9	0.72
Deron Williams	79	78	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	1	10	16.0	17.1	-1.13	13.6	12.1	1.59
Jeremy Evans	39	38	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	7	-2	18.3	14.8	3.47	13.2	13.4	-0.28
John Jenkins	16	17	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.06	6	6	0	15.1	16.4	-1.28	13.9	13.2	0.67
Zaza Pachulia	52	53	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.05	3	9	-6	15.2	17.3	-2.01	13.5	13.1	0.35
Devin Harris	22	23	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	12	-12	12.1	17.4	-5.23	11.0	14.0	-3.00
Justin Anderson	13	13	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.05	-6	18	-24	13.2	16.6	-3.42	10.2	13.8	-3.67
Charlie Villanueva	31	31	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.01	-6	18	-24	14.3	17.1	-2.83	12.7	13.6	-0.86

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Oubre	2	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-11	10	8.0	13.4	-5.44	15.2	16.2	-0.98
Ryan Hollins	9	9	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-12	12	16.2	13.0	3.19	14.2	16.4	-2.17
DeJuan Blair	26	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.10	-9	-3	-6	13.1	13.4	-0.35	14.6	16.8	-2.21
Jared Dudley	71	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-9	6	13.2	13.6	-0.34	15.8	17.2	-1.39
Ramon Sessions	49	50	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.07	-6	-6	0	12.6	14.1	-1.45	16.5	15.9	0.54
Gary Neal	68	69	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-11	10	13.0	14.1	-1.10	16.7	15.0	1.74
John Wall	82	82	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-7	2	13.6	12.0	1.57	15.6	19.2	-3.58
Otto Porter	70	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-7	2	13.4	13.1	0.35	17.5	12.7	4.77
Garrett Temple	27	26	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.01	-16	4	-20	13.0	13.4	-0.41	16.5	16.1	0.42
Bradley Beal	81	82	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.14	-14	2	-16	13.8	11.1	2.72	16.1	16.6	-0.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.49,0.31,0.29,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.52,0.38,0.26,0.3,0.24,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 95, PHX 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.63,0.58,0.57,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.29,0.15,0.21,0.09,0.13,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.01,0	93.0%
GSW 104, DEN 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0	92.8%
MIN 104, POR 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.15,0	92.5%