NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	110		Excitement	8.8 [167]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +20.4%
Golden State Warriors	115		Comeback	1.4 [879]		LVP	Luis Scola (TOR): -19.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.36,0.08	0.12	-0.04	0.00	15	67%	0.33	2	-0.25	12	100%	0.14
Cory Joseph	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.02	7	59%	0.06	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	-0.05	-0.00	12	71%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	4	75%	0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21,-0.12	-0.05	-0.09	-0.02	22	49%	0.04	4	-0.16	13	77%	-0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	0.01	9	41%	-0.03	3	-0.12	4	75%	-0.01
Luis Scola	-0.20	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.06	-0.12	0.01	7	37%	-0.13	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.06

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.2	0.20	0.10	0.11	0.00	23	70%	0.38	7	-0.17	7	86%	0.02
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.04	-0.01	6	72%	0.15	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.07
Festus Ezeli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.02	4	67%	0.07	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	3	71%	0.10	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.04	0.00	3	100%	0.10	1	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02
Klay Thompson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.03	-0.00	19	47%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Ian Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	6	64%	0.04	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	8	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	0.2	28.0	14.6	25.6	2.4	47.4	145.1
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +53.6%

TOR -16.0%

TOR -14.6%

GSW +29.4%

TOR -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	GSW	NBA	TOR	GSW	NBA
this game	15.5	12.2	14.9	105.8	110.6	105.1
season	16.1	13.7		107.2	112.3
opponent	15.1	14.8		102.9	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.8	18.5	14.9	12.7	15.5
GSW	13.2	12.8	12.8	10.5	12.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bismack Biyombo	13	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	-1	-3	15.9	15.4	0.48	13.7	11.9	1.72
Patrick Patterson	40	40	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-3	1	16.4	15.0	1.42	13.0	11.7	1.39
James Johnson	21	21	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.03	-4	-1	-3	15.0	15.6	-0.63	12.2	12.2	-0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	65	63	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-3	1	16.9	13.1	3.79	12.2	12.2	0.04
DeMarre Carroll	86	85	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.34	2	-7	9	15.7	14.5	1.21	11.9	13.5	-1.57
Kyle Lowry	83	83	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.32	-1	-4	3	15.6	15.0	0.63	12.2	12.2	0.00
Luis Scola	64	64	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.26	-6	1	-7	14.6	16.9	-2.32	11.9	12.6	-0.70
Cory Joseph	62	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.32	-4	-1	-3	14.8	16.6	-1.80	12.0	12.5	-0.57
DeMar DeRozan	86	86	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	-1	-3	14.9	18.2	-3.29	12.2	12.3	-0.10

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	86	87	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.34	11	-6	17	11.9	13.5	-1.58	15.3	16.5	-1.23
Andre Iguodala	71	71	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	1	3	12.0	12.5	-0.52	14.7	17.3	-2.64
Harrison Barnes	71	70	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.20	8	-3	11	12.3	12.0	0.24	15.5	15.4	0.13
Klay Thompson	73	75	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.29	5	0	5	11.8	13.1	-1.29	15.9	14.5	1.41
Draymond Green	76	77	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.39	1	4	-3	11.9	13.0	-1.11	15.4	15.7	-0.33
Festus Ezeli	44	43	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.03	12	-7	19	13.4	11.3	2.11	17.2	14.3	2.83
Leandro Barbosa	35	33	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	5	-5	13.6	11.5	2.12	14.6	15.9	-1.31
Marreese Speights	12	12	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	7	-9	11.9	12.2	-0.31	13.8	15.7	-1.88
Andrew Bogut	38	39	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.14	-8	13	-21	11.6	12.5	-0.88	15.8	15.3	0.47
Ian Clark	14	13	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	11	-17	12.4	12.2	0.19	16.8	15.3	1.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.84,0.89,0.81,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.81,0.72,0.78,0.57,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.59,0.54,0.66,0.8,0.85,0.78,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 94, CLE 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.76,0.72,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.84,0.92,0.89,0.84,0.82,0.75,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.78,0.76,0.63,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.89,0.97,0.98,1	93.1%
WAS 89, MEM 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.61,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.91,0.91,0.86,0.82,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.85,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.46,0.48,0.75,0.72,0.85,0.98,1	91.7%
DEN 101, VAN 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.81,0.75,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.72,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.86,0.77,0.6,0.76,0.78,0.86,0.79,0.76,0.91,1	91.6%