NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	98		Excitement	6.6 [511]		MVP	Will Barton (DEN): +35.3%
Denver Nuggets	107		Comeback	1.0 [453]		LVP	Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN): -32.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Jones	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16	0.19	0.01	0.04	12	88%	0.21	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.02	-0.03	6	75%	0.20	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	19	57%	0.17	4	-0.13	11	82%	0.00
Montrezl Harrell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	83%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Clint Capela	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Trevor Ariza	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	12	46%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.13	6	-0.18	6	67%	-0.01
Patrick Beverley	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	8	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.13	-0.02	-0.03	7	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.17	0.17	-0.02	14	74%	0.41	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.03
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.23	0.02	0.04	9	96%	0.23	2	-0.03	10	100%	0.04
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.08	0.01	8	62%	0.15	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.06	-0.02	6	56%	0.11	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Mike Miller	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	16	41%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kostas Papanikolaou	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.21,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.31,-0.31,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33	-0.33	-0.31	-0.08	-0.07	10	10%	-0.13	9	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.4	36.5	15.4	26.3	2.4	38.3	148.7
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +21.0%

HOU -4.3%

DEN +15.5%

DEN +21.2%

HOU -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DEN	NBA	HOU	DEN	NBA
this game	13.8	14.7	14.9	97.0	105.9	105.1
season	14.0	14.9		105.9	104.3
opponent	14.9	15.1		107.8	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.3	12.5	15.3	14.4	13.8
DEN	13.8	13.7	16.0	15.6	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Beverley	16	16	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-9	9	14.6	13.6	0.98	14.7	14.7	0.04
Clint Capela	25	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.05	1	-10	11	15.5	13.2	2.23	16.3	14.2	2.14
Montrezl Harrell	30	29	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-8	7	12.6	14.3	-1.76	14.2	14.9	-0.66
Terrence Jones	46	44	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-12	15	12.7	14.7	-2.07	14.6	14.8	-0.18
Trevor Ariza	81	80	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.23	3	-12	15	13.7	14.1	-0.37	14.7	14.6	0.18
Ty Lawson	74	73	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	-2	-5	13.4	15.0	-1.69	14.2	16.1	-1.88
Dwight Howard	58	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.10	-6	-3	-3	14.1	13.4	0.75	14.5	15.1	-0.61
Jason Terry	31	32	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-5	1	14.6	13.5	1.12	15.6	14.3	1.34
Corey Brewer	27	29	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.19	-8	-1	-7	14.9	13.4	1.53	14.7	14.7	-0.08
Marcus Thornton	38	39	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.01	-17	8	-25	13.6	13.9	-0.32	13.8	15.3	-1.45
James Harden	79	79	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.24	-9	0	-9	13.9	13.5	0.44	15.2	13.1	2.02

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	58	59	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.20	15	-6	21	14.2	15.4	-1.23	13.8	13.9	-0.09
Will Barton	65	64	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.28	9	0	9	14.4	15.2	-0.83	13.9	13.6	0.37
Danilo Gallinari	72	73	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.20	9	0	9	15.7	12.4	3.27	14.1	13.0	1.11
Emmanuel Mudiay	70	71	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.19	7	2	5	15.4	13.2	2.15	13.6	14.4	-0.80
Darrell Arthur	27	27	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	0	9	13.9	15.0	-1.07	12.0	14.4	-2.41
Kenneth Faried	62	62	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.15	3	6	-3	15.3	13.8	1.50	14.3	13.0	1.26
Nikola Jokic	13	13	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	4	1	13.7	14.9	-1.17	12.4	14.0	-1.63
Randy Foye	56	54	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.07	0	9	-9	14.2	15.3	-1.12	13.4	14.2	-0.81
Gary Harris	24	25	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	9	-9	14.5	14.8	-0.28	13.5	13.9	-0.37
Kostas Papanikolaou	8	7	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.00	-4	13	-17	13.0	14.9	-1.86	18.3	13.5	4.82
JJ Hickson	50	50	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.12	-10	19	-29	14.3	15.1	-0.74	14.2	13.4	0.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.65,0.65,0.57,0.7,0.72,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.93,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 102, DET 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.73,0.75,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.76,0.7,0.74,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.98,1,1,1	94.1%
CHH 70, MIA 76	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.99,0.98,1,1	93.5%
WAS 85, IND 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.62,0.53,0.83,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	93.5%