NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	100		Excitement	6.5 [538]		MVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET): +17.2%
Phoenix Suns	92		Comeback	1.4 [388]		LVP	Markieff Morris (PHX): -19.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.04	0.01	10	86%	0.20	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.07	0.01	14	59%	0.15	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Aron Baynes	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.08	0.00	1	100%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Steve Blake	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.06	0.02	18	52%	0.12	4	-0.09	8	75%	0.01
Anthony Tolliver	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	46%	0.02	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	0.01	-0.01	5	38%	0.01	3	-0.08	3	33%	-0.04
Andre Drummond	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	9	39%	-0.01	3	-0.10	13	15%	-0.16

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Knight	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.01	19	52%	0.12	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Mirza Teletovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alex Len	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	67%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	23	45%	0.08	4	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	0.05	6	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
TJ Warren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Markieff Morris	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	21	41%	-0.11	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.8	25.5	15.7	26.1	2.5	40.5	135.8
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +53.7%

DET +0.3%

PHX -5.1%

PHX -2.6%

DET +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	PHX	NBA	DET	PHX	NBA
this game	13.7	14.8	14.9	98.0	92.0	105.1
season	15.0	14.4		104.9	100.9
opponent	14.4	15.1		107.4	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.7	16.3	13.1	11.4	13.7
PHX	14.7	15.0	14.6	14.9	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Tolliver	52	49	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.30	4	4	0	13.7	13.8	-0.11	15.8	13.8	1.99
Marcus Morris	85	82	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	2	4	13.9	13.1	0.75	14.6	15.5	-0.88
Reggie Jackson	67	67	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.17	7	1	6	13.4	14.4	-0.95	13.9	16.5	-2.64
Aron Baynes	23	23	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.16	7	1	6	15.0	13.4	1.56	16.6	14.2	2.32
Stanley Johnson	46	46	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.15	7	1	6	12.8	14.5	-1.67	15.8	13.9	1.82
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	79	78	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	4	0	13.7	13.9	-0.22	13.9	18.0	-4.19
Andre Drummond	79	77	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	7	-6	13.4	15.0	-1.56	14.2	16.6	-2.32
Steve Blake	35	33	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.09	1	7	-6	14.4	13.4	0.95	16.5	13.9	2.64
Ersan Ilyasova	44	45	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.02	3	5	-2	14.6	13.1	1.53	14.6	15.0	-0.41

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sonny Weems	10	11	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-6	4	17.1	14.5	2.58	16.1	13.5	2.63
Markieff Morris	66	67	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.33	8	-16	24	14.1	16.0	-1.89	13.5	14.2	-0.65
PJ Tucker	73	74	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.24	4	-12	16	14.2	16.4	-2.28	13.5	14.4	-0.89
Jon Leuer	25	26	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.09	-2	-6	4	15.8	14.5	1.31	14.5	13.5	1.06
Brandon Knight	84	84	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.17	0	-8	8	14.0	18.9	-4.87	13.4	15.3	-1.86
Alex Len	17	18	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-3	-2	15.6	14.6	0.97	14.8	13.5	1.32
Mirza Teletovic	17	17	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.12	-11	3	-14	16.5	14.4	2.04	13.5	13.8	-0.33
Ronnie Price	27	27	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.03	-12	4	-16	15.4	14.6	0.81	12.1	14.3	-2.22
Eric Bledsoe	76	78	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.33	0	-8	8	14.9	14.5	0.31	14.3	12.0	2.23
Tyson Chandler	75	76	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.18	-6	-2	-4	14.5	15.8	-1.31	13.5	14.5	-1.06
TJ Warren	30	32	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.07	-14	6	-20	17.0	13.8	3.12	14.5	13.4	1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.49,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.44,0.34,0.18,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.15,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 107, GSW 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.24,0.29,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.12,0.03,0.04,0.22,0.1,0.15,0.06,0.02,0	94.5%
MIL 100, MIA 91	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0	94.2%
TOR 126, ATL 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.46,0.32,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.8%