NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	126		Excitement	6.4 [527]		MVP	Greivis Vasquez (TOR): +30.3%
Atlanta Hawks	115		Comeback	1.2 [861]		LVP	Shelvin Mack (ATL): -12.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greivis Vasquez	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.18	0.12	-0.00	12	81%	0.33	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Lou Williams	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.18	0.10	-0.02	11	79%	0.30	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Terrence Ross	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	-0.00	0.01	7	75%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.04	16	66%	0.17	5	-0.11	9	100%	0.03
Patrick Patterson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	1	150%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	8	55%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.04	12	44%	0.06	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.01
Amir Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	8	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	0.00	0.02	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.04	-0.02	16	68%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.02	0.00	6	93%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	0.01	0.05	9	90%	0.19	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.00	11	58%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pero Antic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	3	62%	0.09	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.04	0.06	14	67%	0.09	5	-0.12	8	100%	0.04
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	9	36%	-0.05	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.03
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	7	20%	-0.11	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.4	27.6	16.4	26.9	1.7	38.3	139.5
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +35.8%

TOR +4.9%

ATL -2.6%

TOR +11.4%

TOR +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ATL	NBA	TOR	ATL	NBA
this game	16.0	14.2	15.1	132.6	119.8	104.2
season	15.6	14.9		109.1	106.7
opponent	15.4	15.0		101.8	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.7	15.3	17.0	17.2	16.0
ATL	14.7	12.9	15.7	13.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lou Williams	53	54	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.17	12	-1	13	15.6	16.5	-0.88	13.6	14.9	-1.29
James Johnson	39	41	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.15	10	1	9	16.6	15.6	1.07	13.5	14.7	-1.17
Kyle Lowry	64	66	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.03	14	-3	17	15.8	16.5	-0.70	14.7	12.9	1.78
Charles Hayes	35	37	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.13	10	1	9	15.4	16.4	-0.97	14.3	14.1	0.19
Patrick Patterson	43	44	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.18	2	9	-7	15.4	16.5	-1.12	13.5	14.7	-1.25
DeMar DeRozan	65	63	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	5	1	16.1	15.8	0.31	14.1	14.2	-0.09
Amir Johnson	53	53	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.01	6	5	1	16.5	15.4	1.09	14.5	13.8	0.66
Greivis Vasquez	34	34	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.15	-3	14	-17	16.2	15.9	0.26	13.7	14.4	-0.65
Jonas Valanciunas	47	46	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	12	-13	16.0	16.0	0.02	14.5	13.8	0.70
Terrence Ross	42	42	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	12	-13	16.5	15.6	0.88	14.9	13.6	1.29

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Korver	72	71	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-12	13	13.9	15.0	-1.18	16.5	14.5	1.97
Kent Bazemore	7	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.01	-3	-8	5	16.4	14.0	2.45	15.1	16.1	-0.94
Pero Antic	38	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-8	5	13.0	14.9	-1.96	14.3	17.1	-2.81
Al Horford	61	62	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-8	5	14.4	13.7	0.74	17.0	14.1	2.89
Jeff Teague	66	65	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.09	-3	-8	5	14.2	14.2	-0.02	16.7	14.6	2.11
Mike Scott	25	23	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.05	-9	-2	-7	12.9	14.6	-1.73	13.9	16.7	-2.82
Shelvin Mack	32	32	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.07	-10	-1	-9	14.3	14.1	0.28	14.2	16.9	-2.70
DeMarre Carroll	76	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.19	-6	-5	-1	14.0	14.6	-0.62	16.6	13.6	2.97
Dennis Schroder	35	34	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.04	-12	1	-13	14.4	14.0	0.43	14.2	17.0	-2.76
Paul Millsap	68	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.27	-7	-4	-3	15.0	12.0	3.04	16.7	14.1	2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.46,0.32,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 100, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.49,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.44,0.34,0.18,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.15,0,0	93.8%
LAL 106, PHI 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.37,0.26,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.1,0.2,0.02,0.02,0.01,0	93.5%
DET 93, MIL 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.13,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.4%