NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	5.2 [769]		MVP	Solomon Hill (IND): +18.3%
Indiana Pacers	112		Comeback	1.2 [825]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -17.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.06	0.02	-0.09	10	62%	0.14	2	0.02	4	50%	0.01
James Ennis	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	0.01	0.04	11	65%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Michael Beasley	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.01	5	73%	0.08	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	0.02	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	-0.02	21	55%	0.09	4	-0.07	7	71%	0.02
Tyler Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	42%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Zoran Dragic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Henry Walker	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	10	50%	-0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	8	18%	-0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.04	-0.00	8	12%	-0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Solomon Hill	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.16	0.05	0.02	10	79%	0.18	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
David West	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.04	0.14	0.03	5	55%	0.15	0	0.00	12	83%	0.08
CJ Miles	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.01	13	65%	0.14	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.14	0.01	0.09	15	70%	0.05	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.00
Paul George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	12	54%	0.11	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Donald Sloan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Copeland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	36%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Damjan Rudez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	2	75%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lavoy Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	5	21%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	11	27%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.02	0.02	2	25%	-0.08	2	-0.05	8	12%	-0.12

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.7	32.0	17.4	32.5	2.6	31.2	146.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +25.3%

IND +1.1%

IND +26.7%

MIA -4.6%

IND +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	15.2	16.1	15.1	96.7	121.7	104.2
season	16.0	16.0		102.4	102.3
opponent	15.0	15.3		102.0	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.1	13.2	17.3	15.4	15.2
IND	14.3	16.3	16.1	18.0	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Johnson	24	25	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.15	-2	-21	19	14.0	15.6	-1.53	18.2	15.4	2.84
Zoran Dragic	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-22	21	12.2	15.5	-3.20	19.4	15.8	3.55
Michael Beasley	31	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.04	0	-23	23	14.9	15.3	-0.46	14.7	16.8	-2.09
James Ennis	57	55	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.09	-7	-16	9	15.1	15.3	-0.23	15.1	17.6	-2.45
Dwyane Wade	65	65	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.19	-14	-9	-5	15.4	14.7	0.67	16.2	16.0	0.13
Henry Walker	35	36	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	-12	1	15.3	15.1	0.23	16.9	15.6	1.29
Luol Deng	53	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	-9	-5	15.5	14.7	0.84	16.4	15.7	0.76
Goran Dragic	66	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.20	-21	-2	-19	15.1	15.4	-0.29	16.2	15.9	0.29
Mario Chalmers	54	53	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.02	-19	-4	-15	15.4	14.8	0.57	14.6	18.2	-3.56
Udonis Haslem	67	67	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	0.22	-26	3	-29	15.5	14.3	1.17	16.8	14.3	2.54

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Roy Hibbert	43	44	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.02	17	6	11	16.7	15.6	1.11	16.0	14.4	1.58
David West	48	49	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.02	15	8	7	16.7	15.5	1.12	15.5	14.8	0.72
Solomon Hill	47	47	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.05	13	10	3	17.8	14.4	3.39	14.3	16.1	-1.83
George Hill	47	47	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.00	11	12	-1	16.7	15.6	1.13	15.7	14.6	1.08
Paul George	29	30	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.09	12	11	1	13.3	17.4	-4.12	16.8	14.4	2.41
Ian Mahinmi	40	43	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.08	10	13	-3	14.2	17.6	-3.46	15.2	15.1	0.11
Rodney Stuckey	51	52	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.06	9	14	-5	14.4	18.2	-3.81	15.0	15.3	-0.31
CJ Miles	49	47	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	18	-13	16.7	15.5	1.25	15.4	14.9	0.47
Donald Sloan	45	45	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.24	14	9	5	15.6	16.7	-1.13	14.6	15.7	-1.08
Luis Scola	38	38	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.17	7	16	-9	15.0	16.9	-1.97	15.2	15.2	0.02
Damjan Rudez	9	8	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.12	5	18	-13	22.2	15.5	6.75	13.9	15.3	-1.42
Chris Copeland	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	22	-21	19.2	15.9	3.25	11.8	15.4	-3.57
Lavoy Allen	15	13	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.01	-2	25	-27	17.1	15.9	1.12	12.9	15.5	-2.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.69,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.72,0.79,0.87,0.78,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 108, OKC 120	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
DAL 77, SAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.77,0.79,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
TOR 100, CLE 122	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.68,0.6,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%