NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	6.2 [577]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): +27.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	120		Comeback	1.2 [1119]		LVP	Damian Lillard (POR): -14.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jusuf Nurkic	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.10	0.08	0.00	5	100%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.06	0.02	18	61%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.04	0.00	11	74%	0.18	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Will Barton	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	8	75%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.02	0.05	10	48%	-0.04	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.03	-0.07	0.04	12	50%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
JJ Hickson	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	9	45%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	11	43%	-0.05	3	-0.05	8	87%	0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.17	0.10	-0.00	20	70%	0.31	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.06	0.02	8	94%	0.20	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.01	6	75%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.06	0.04	11	81%	0.18	4	-0.07	4	100%	0.00
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.05	0.00	12	58%	0.12	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	60%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	0.01	0.06	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	5	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joel Freeland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.02	0.03	11	36%	-0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.8	27.3	15.0	26.0	2.6	33.4	131.3
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +60.5%

DEN -6.2%

POR +4.7%

DEN -12.6%

POR +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	13.8	14.5	15.1	111.8	118.8	104.2
season	14.6	15.3		103.4	106.5
opponent	15.0	15.3		102.7	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	13.1	15.2	13.3	13.8
POR	13.7	14.6	16.7	13.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Green	1	0	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-4	2	2.0	14.0	-11.96	0.0	14.5	-14.53
Jusuf Nurkic	39	39	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-5	4	14.0	13.8	0.21	14.5	14.5	-0.04
Gary Harris	23	22	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-4	2	12.3	14.3	-1.93	16.3	14.1	2.22
Randy Foye	52	51	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-4	2	13.3	14.4	-1.05	13.6	15.5	-1.87
Ty Lawson	73	73	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.25	1	-7	8	14.1	13.1	1.03	14.2	15.5	-1.29
Jameer Nelson	54	55	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.28	2	-8	10	13.7	14.0	-0.26	13.6	15.7	-2.13
Will Barton	50	49	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-2	-2	14.0	13.7	0.27	15.8	13.3	2.53
JJ Hickson	54	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.05	-8	2	-10	14.9	12.7	2.14	15.5	13.5	1.99
Kenneth Faried	55	55	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.35	2	-8	10	13.5	14.2	-0.65	14.4	14.7	-0.38
Joffrey Lauvergne	24	24	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.13	-16	10	-26	13.6	13.9	-0.34	14.1	14.7	-0.59
Wilson Chandler	85	83	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-6	6	14.0	13.0	1.01	14.5	14.8	-0.30

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	71	73	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.17	15	-9	24	14.5	14.6	-0.14	13.9	13.6	0.36
Arron Afflalo	61	62	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.24	12	-6	18	14.1	15.2	-1.06	14.2	13.3	0.85
Nicolas Batum	79	80	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.39	-2	8	-10	14.5	14.5	0.04	14.0	13.4	0.61
Damian Lillard	61	64	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.17	5	1	4	14.4	14.7	-0.23	14.0	13.5	0.55
Robin Lopez	63	63	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.23	2	4	-2	14.4	14.8	-0.37	14.2	13.2	1.03
Dorell Wright	40	42	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.01	7	-1	8	15.2	14.1	1.14	13.7	14.0	-0.30
Steve Blake	37	36	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	1	4	15.7	13.9	1.80	13.9	13.8	0.11
Chris Kaman	36	36	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	3	0	14.8	14.4	0.38	13.5	14.0	-0.53
Joel Freeland	14	12	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.14	-7	13	-20	12.7	14.8	-2.11	11.9	14.1	-2.18
CJ McCollum	43	42	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.21	-10	16	-26	14.3	14.7	-0.45	13.0	14.4	-1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.82,0.82,0.88,0.82,0.81,0.7,0.62,0.72,0.73,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.9,0.93,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 91, LAC 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.74,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.71,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.9%
MIL 85, NJN 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.8,0.72,0.86,0.94,0.9,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.4%
LAC 74, ATL 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.92,0.89,0.78,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1	93.3%