NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	110		Excitement	5.0 [798]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +20.4%
Indiana Pacers	100		Comeback	1.0 [673]		LVP	Ian Mahinmi (IND): -13.5%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.20	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.22	0.02	0.04	21	69%	0.29	4	-0.09	22	95%	0.08
Donatas Motiejunas	0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.08	0.00	9	77%	0.21	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Josh Smith	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.04	-0.00	14	64%	0.14	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	6	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Pablo Prigioni	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Beverley	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.05	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joey Dorsey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	55%	-0.00	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Trevor Ariza	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.00	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.02	12	69%	0.09	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.19	-0.01	0.13	10	88%	0.09	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.01	0.05	15	65%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Damjan Rudez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	6	58%	0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	41%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.05
Solomon Hill	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	0.02	-0.02	6	42%	0.03	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.17	-0.03	-0.07	16	19%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.02	0.01	13	33%	-0.09	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	1.8	27.2	15.5	27.4	2.6	42.2	144.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +38.2%

HOU +30.7%

IND -24.9%

HOU +5.6%

HOU +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	IND	NBA	HOU	IND	NBA
this game	14.4	15.2	15.1	112.2	103.1	104.2
season	14.3	16.0		105.6	102.3
opponent	15.0	14.9		102.0	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	12.9	16.2	14.4	14.1	14.4
IND	15.9	14.4	15.6	14.7	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	87	86	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.24	5	5	0	14.6	12.5	2.05	15.1	16.0	-0.93
Trevor Ariza	65	65	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.08	10	0	10	14.0	15.1	-1.05	15.3	14.9	0.35
Donatas Motiejunas	75	76	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	7	-4	15.3	11.3	3.95	15.1	15.6	-0.57
Joey Dorsey	48	49	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.06	13	-3	16	14.5	14.2	0.26	17.1	13.2	3.89
Corey Brewer	55	52	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.11	6	4	2	13.6	15.4	-1.83	14.8	15.6	-0.88
Josh Smith	62	60	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.20	3	7	-4	13.9	15.2	-1.26	14.1	16.9	-2.73
Patrick Beverley	39	37	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.02	7	3	4	14.8	14.1	0.75	15.8	14.8	0.98
Pablo Prigioni	22	22	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	8	-6	14.3	14.4	-0.12	13.6	15.6	-2.05
Jason Terry	37	38	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	9	-8	13.9	14.6	-0.68	15.5	15.0	0.53

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Roy Hibbert	61	60	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.21	4	-14	18	16.0	13.8	2.13	15.5	12.6	2.96
David West	63	64	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.15	1	-11	12	14.9	15.6	-0.73	14.5	14.1	0.47
Solomon Hill	51	50	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.01	-4	-6	2	16.2	14.0	2.15	14.1	14.7	-0.63
Damjan Rudez	46	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.01	-9	-1	-8	14.3	15.9	-1.62	13.1	15.5	-2.34
George Hill	70	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-9	8	15.5	14.2	1.32	14.4	14.2	0.29
Luis Scola	34	34	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	1	-12	15.6	14.9	0.73	14.1	14.5	-0.47
CJ Miles	66	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.12	-9	-1	-8	15.2	15.2	-0.03	14.1	14.9	-0.83
Ian Mahinmi	32	33	-0.41	-0.10	-0.31	-0.02	-13	3	-16	14.8	15.4	-0.54	13.6	14.7	-1.10
CJ Watson	62	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.20	-8	-2	-6	14.0	17.3	-3.35	15.0	13.2	1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.2,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.07,0.1,0.21,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.36,0.36,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.08,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 99, MIA 82	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.23,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.18,0.29,0.25,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.9%
IND 87, NYK 74	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.2,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.2,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.21,0.18,0.26,0.21,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.08,0.02,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%
NYK 105, SAC 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.43,0.35,0.3,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.1,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0	93.7%