NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	102		Excitement	7.2 [378]		MVP	Marc Gasol (MEM): +37.8%
Houston Rockets	100		Comeback	2.6 [291]		LVP	Donatas Motiejunas (HOU): -15.0%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0.38	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.38	0.09	0.28	-0.00	14	70%	0.43	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Zach Randolph	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.07	-0.00	12	60%	0.16	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.05	0.00	9	77%	0.21	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Courtney Lee	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.09	0.01	8	33%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.07
Kosta Koufos	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	60%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Tony Allen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	9	67%	0.13	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Nick Calathes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jon Leuer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	-0.03	0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	12	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	8	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.07	0.02	14	72%	0.21	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.01	14	53%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.06	0.01	5	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.03	9	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joey Dorsey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.12,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	16	53%	0.07	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	44%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.09	0.01	12	42%	-0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.6	2.3	27.9	16.0	22.0	2.5	28.4	119.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +23.5%

MEM +21.6%

HOU -2.4%

MEM +5.0%

MEM +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	HOU	NBA	MEM	HOU	NBA
this game	15.7	16.1	15.1	112.1	111.1	104.2
season	15.9	14.3		103.8	105.6
opponent	14.9	15.2		103.1	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.7	13.7	15.4	18.4	15.7
HOU	14.3	17.0	16.6	16.8	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Calathes	30	31	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.13	13	-11	24	15.5	15.8	-0.29	17.3	15.5	1.81
Zach Randolph	61	61	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.43	-2	4	-6	16.4	14.2	2.23	15.9	16.6	-0.62
Kosta Koufos	27	27	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.13	8	-6	14	14.7	16.1	-1.41	18.3	15.2	3.09
Tony Allen	50	49	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.07	7	-5	12	15.2	16.3	-1.18	17.2	14.8	2.44
Mike Conley	64	62	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.43	-6	8	-14	15.9	15.1	0.77	15.3	18.0	-2.71
Beno Udrih	27	28	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.01	8	-6	14	15.1	15.9	-0.77	18.0	15.3	2.71
Marc Gasol	64	63	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.34	-6	8	-14	16.1	14.7	1.41	15.2	18.3	-3.09
Courtney Lee	57	55	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.40	-8	10	-18	15.5	16.0	-0.49	15.3	17.4	-2.03
Jon Leuer	12	11	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.06	5	-3	8	13.6	16.0	-2.43	17.6	15.9	1.71
Jeff Green	63	63	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.33	-9	11	-20	16.1	14.9	1.21	15.3	18.1	-2.77

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	39	42	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-4	6	15.4	16.7	-1.32	15.3	16.0	-0.76
Joey Dorsey	15	16	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	1	-4	18.3	15.7	2.56	14.5	15.9	-1.45
James Harden	76	77	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.37	10	-12	22	15.9	17.3	-1.36	16.2	12.7	3.52
Jason Terry	35	35	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.05	-6	4	-10	17.0	15.6	1.37	13.5	17.1	-3.59
Patrick Beverley	55	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.39	4	-6	10	15.6	17.0	-1.37	17.1	13.5	3.59
Donatas Motiejunas	42	41	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.12	-7	5	-12	15.3	16.8	-1.50	15.8	15.6	0.25
Trevor Ariza	71	70	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.47	-1	-1	0	15.7	17.7	-1.97	16.4	13.4	2.94
Corey Brewer	48	50	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.36	-5	3	-8	16.6	15.6	0.96	15.2	16.3	-1.05
Terrence Jones	69	68	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.44	-4	2	-6	16.9	13.5	3.40	15.2	17.2	-2.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.13,0.09,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.22,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 94, BOS 88	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09,0	92.6%
SAS 117, OKC 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.34,0.18,0.14,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.4%
CHI 103, OKC 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0.04,0	91.7%