NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	114		Excitement	5.7 [670]		MVP	Patrick Patterson (TOR): +16.1%
Philadelphia 76ers	103		Comeback	1.2 [1051]		LVP	Luc Mbah a Moute (PHI): -8.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Patterson	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.04	-0.00	10	71%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Lou Williams	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.07	0.02	15	57%	0.15	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
DeMar DeRozan	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.15	0.02	0.05	24	60%	0.16	2	-0.04	10	100%	0.05
Greivis Vasquez	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	8	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.05	0.03	10	60%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	4	60%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Amir Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	2	62%	0.02	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	8	72%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Nerlens Noel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.01	0.04	7	94%	0.13	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.01	0.05	13	66%	0.07	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Isaiah Canaan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	0.00	0.05	12	58%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Furkan Aldemir	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Henry Sims	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	10	48%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Hollis Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	64%	0.06	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.00
JaKarr Sampson	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	44%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	10	45%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.8	28.4	15.5	25.5	2.4	28.2	126.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +23.0%

TOR +18.7%

PHI -6.0%

TOR +14.8%

PHI -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	PHI	NBA	TOR	PHI	NBA
this game	15.7	16.3	15.1	126.7	114.4	104.2
season	15.6	14.9		109.1	94.3
opponent	14.8	15.0		103.4	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.9	14.8	14.5	17.6	15.7
PHI	16.1	18.8	19.1	11.9	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrence Ross	55	55	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	1	9	16.0	15.3	0.62	15.6	17.3	-1.74
DeMar DeRozan	72	72	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.09	13	-2	15	15.5	16.7	-1.25	16.0	17.2	-1.18
Lou Williams	56	57	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	2	7	16.1	15.0	1.11	15.5	17.5	-2.00
Patrick Patterson	54	55	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.18	7	4	3	16.7	14.3	2.36	15.6	17.4	-1.79
Jonas Valanciunas	45	45	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.04	12	-1	13	14.4	17.1	-2.69	17.2	15.4	1.80
Amir Johnson	51	51	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	7	-3	16.2	15.1	1.14	15.8	16.9	-1.09
Greivis Vasquez	52	51	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.12	0	11	-11	15.6	15.9	-0.25	17.4	14.8	2.66
Tyler Hansbrough	30	29	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	12	-13	15.2	16.0	-0.78	17.0	15.9	1.12
James Johnson	35	35	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	10	-9	15.3	16.0	-0.62	17.3	15.6	1.74

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Furkan Aldemir	24	24	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-11	11	18.8	15.3	3.48	17.0	15.3	1.69
Thomas Robinson	25	25	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.09	0	-11	11	19.2	15.2	4.05	16.1	15.6	0.55
Henry Sims	43	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-3	-5	16.7	15.9	0.89	15.0	16.4	-1.37
Ish Smith	52	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.19	-1	-10	9	15.8	16.9	-1.16	16.6	14.6	1.95
Hollis Thompson	44	44	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-6	1	16.6	16.0	0.61	15.9	15.5	0.41
Isaiah Canaan	48	49	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	-5	-1	15.4	17.2	-1.80	15.5	16.0	-0.51
JaKarr Sampson	40	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	1	-13	16.6	16.0	0.67	15.2	16.2	-0.99
Luc Mbah a Moute	56	56	-0.34	-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-10	-1	-9	15.9	16.9	-0.97	15.1	16.7	-1.58
Nerlens Noel	62	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-4	-3	15.2	18.6	-3.38	15.7	15.7	0.01
Jerami Grant	56	55	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.19	-6	-5	-1	15.7	17.2	-1.49	15.8	15.6	0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.44,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 88, POR 78	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.26,0.31,0.18,0.23,0.28,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
PHI 100, LAC 86	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.2%
CLE 102, OKC 91	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%