NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	88		Excitement	5.2 [795]		MVP	Ray Allen (BOS): +6.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	78		Comeback	1.5 [815]		LVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): -17.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	14	58%	0.09	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Semih Erden	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	1	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.00
Von Wafer	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	14	57%	0.12	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	4	83%	0.13	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Nate Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	3	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	0.04	9	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.08	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	8	55%	0.07	6	-0.15	4	25%	-0.02
Glen Davis	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	5	37%	-0.05	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	10	32%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	11	48%	0.04	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	15	41%	-0.03	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	20	40%	-0.03	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.07	-0.05	0.05	15	37%	-0.12	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.8	31.2	18.4	24.7	3.0	40.2	147.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +52.9%

BOS +5.9%

POR -5.5%

POR -5.9%

BOS +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	POR	NBA	BOS	POR	NBA
this game	16.2	14.9	15.5	95.7	83.9	105.7
season	15.7	16.5		104.8	106.7
opponent	15.7	15.8		105.6	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.9	16.7	17.7	15.7	16.2
POR	15.7	13.3	15.0	15.6	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	80	80	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.13	15	-5	20	15.5	21.1	-5.57	14.9	14.8	0.14
Paul Pierce	64	65	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.08	14	-4	18	16.7	15.2	1.52	16.2	11.8	4.39
Kevin Garnett	60	60	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.06	13	-3	16	15.9	16.9	-1.07	15.3	14.1	1.24
Ray Allen	75	74	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	3	4	16.1	16.9	-0.86	14.5	16.6	-2.12
Semih Erden	33	34	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.07	8	2	6	15.4	16.7	-1.37	16.1	14.2	1.88
Von Wafer	10	11	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	5	0	17.6	16.1	1.53	17.5	14.5	2.91
Glen Davis	51	52	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.24	-1	11	-12	16.5	15.9	0.56	14.1	15.9	-1.81
Kendrick Perkins	39	39	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	10	-10	17.5	15.3	2.12	14.3	15.3	-1.01
Marquis Daniels	39	41	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.26	-9	19	-28	15.9	16.5	-0.50	13.5	16.0	-2.47
Nate Robinson	11	11	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.11	1	9	-8	16.2	16.2	-0.07	10.5	15.5	-5.03

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nicolas Batum	29	29	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-11	12	15.0	14.9	0.11	15.3	16.7	-1.36
Patty Mills	30	31	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.02	1	-11	12	12.1	16.2	-4.07	15.4	16.7	-1.29
Joel Przybilla	36	37	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.05	-3	-7	4	15.3	14.6	0.72	16.2	16.3	-0.13
Luke Babbitt	16	15	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-6	2	12.7	15.3	-2.59	19.0	15.7	3.30
Dante Cunningham	61	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-8	6	14.6	15.5	-0.97	17.6	13.9	3.74
Rudy Fernandez	67	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.23	-7	-3	-4	15.2	14.1	1.13	16.0	17.0	-0.99
Wesley Matthews	74	73	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.17	-10	0	-10	15.0	14.3	0.72	16.3	16.1	0.24
Andre Miller	65	64	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.11	-14	4	-18	15.9	12.5	3.47	16.0	16.7	-0.63
LaMarcus Aldridge	87	86	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.21	-12	2	-14	15.1	11.7	3.45	15.8	22.7	-6.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.26,0.31,0.18,0.23,0.28,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 97, CLE 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.4,0.3,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
LAL 104, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0	94.8%
MIA 108, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.24,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.34,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.02,0,0,0	94.6%